Safety and risk analysis of managed pressure drilling operation using Bayesian network
Safety and risk analysis of managed pressure drilling operation using Bayesian network
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ssci.2015.01.010
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发表时间：
2015-07
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
M. Abimbola;F. Khan;N. Khakzad;S. Butt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Abimbola;F. Khan;N. Khakzad;S. Butt
海上极端恶劣环境下的油气资源勘探开发具有安全风险高、钻井成本高等特点。由于钻井问题增加和非生产时间延长，如果使用传统的超平衡钻井开采其中一些资源将是不经济的，或者采用欠平衡钻井技术风险太大。寻求降低钻井成本和最小化风险的新方法导致了控压钻井技术的发展。控压钻井方法解决了传统的过平衡和欠平衡钻井技术的缺点。随着控压钻井技术的不断发展，存在许多与安全和操作压力状态相关的未解答的问题。本研究调查了与传统超平衡钻井相比用于控制压力钻井的恒定井底压力钻井技术的安全和操作问题。该研究首先使用领结模型来绘制恒定井底压力钻井技术中的安全挑战和操作压力状态。由于对依赖关系进行建模和更新对操作数据的信念的困难，领结被映射到贝叶斯网络中。对贝叶斯网络进行了彻底分析，以评估恒定井底压力钻井技术及其安全操作压力状态的安全关键要素。
The exploration and development of oil and gas resources located in extreme and harsh offshore environments are characterized with high safety risk and drilling cost. Some of these resources would be either uneconomical if extracted using conventional overbalanced drilling due to increased drilling problems and prolonged non-productive time, or too risky to adopt underbalanced drilling technique. Seeking new ways to reduce drilling cost and minimize risks has led to the development of managed pressure drilling techniques. Managed pressure drilling methods address the drawbacks of conventional overbalanced and underbalanced drilling techniques. As managed pressure drilling techniques are evolving, there are many unanswered questions related to safety and operating pressure regime. This study investigates the safety and operational issues of constant bottom-hole pressure drilling technique which is used in managed pressure drilling compared to conventional overbalanced drilling. The study first uses bow-tie models to map safety challenges and operating pressure regimes in constant bottom-hole pressure drilling technique. Due to the difficulties in modeling dependencies and updating the belief on the operational data, the bow-ties are mapped into Bayesian networks. The Bayesian networks are thoroughly analyzed to assess the safety critical elements of constant bottom-hole pressure drilling techniques and their safe operating pressure regime.