Effects of an extreme weather event on seabird breeding success at a North Sea colony
Effects of an extreme weather event on seabird breeding success at a North Sea colony
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DOI：
10.3354/meps11329
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发表时间：
2015-07-21
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Daunt, Francis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Newell, Mark;Wanless, Sarah;Daunt, Francis
量化极端天气的影响是种群生态学中的一个关键问题，因为气候模型预测气候变异性增加。由于暴露或易感性，影响会在物种间和物种内有所不同，但很少有研究同时考虑这些变异的来源。研究了夏季风暴对北海某海区4种海鸟繁殖成功率的影响，考察了不同方位、海拔高度、到悬崖边缘的距离和产卵日期等因素对繁殖成功率的影响。风暴持续了8小时，阵风为>；60米S(-1)。在暴露的地块中，斑嘴鸟的失败率(28.5%)高于欧洲斑羚(15.1%)、黑腿猫尾斑羚(15.6%)和普通斑潜蝇(10.4%)。相反，保护地的失败率可以忽略不计(shags 0.0%；kittiwaks 1.9%；在保护地没有Guillemot或RazorBill的地块)。海平面附近繁殖的海龟更有可能失败，但悬崖边缘附近不会影响失败率。在斑嘴鸟中，产卵较早的双胞胎更有可能在风暴中幸存下来。在所有物种中，一些失败的配对重新配对，重配的成功率低于幸存的配对。因此，重新安置只提供了部分补偿，总体而言，风暴导致年净生产量分别减少了4.6%、10.7%、8.9%和22.8%。因此，风暴频率的增加可能会对海鸟种群产生重要影响，但风暴相对于群体的方向和与繁殖季节有关的时间很可能是决定总体影响的关键。
Quantifying the effects of extreme weather is a critical question in population ecology since climate models predict increased climate variability. Effects will vary among and within species due to exposure or susceptibility, yet few studies have considered these sources of variation simultaneously. We investigated the effects of a summer storm on the breeding success of 4 seabird species at a North Sea colony in relation to aspect, height above sea-level, distance to cliff edge and laying date. The storm lasted 8 h with gusts of >60 m s(-1). In exposed plots, razorbills Alca torda had higher failure rates (28.5%) than European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis (15.1%), black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla (15.6%) and common guillemots Uria aalge (10.4%). Conversely, failure rates in sheltered plots were negligible (shags 0.0%; kittiwakes 1.9%; no guillemot or razorbill plots in sheltered locations). Guillemots breeding closer to sea-level were more likely to fail, but cliff edge proximity did not affect failure rate. In razorbills, pairs that laid early were more likely to survive the storm. In all species, some failed pairs re-laid, and success of re- lays was lower than that of pairs that survived. Thus, re-laying only provided partial compensation, and, overall, the storm caused a net reduction in annual population production of 4.6, 10.7, 8.9 and 22.8% for shags, kittiwakes, guillemots and razorbills, respectively. Increased storm frequency may therefore have important consequences on seabird populations, but orientation of storms relative to colonies and timing in relation to the breeding season are likely to be critical in determining the overall effect.