Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios
Simulating plant invasion dynamics in mountain ecosystems under global change scenarios
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13879
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Thuiller, Wilfried
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carboni, Marta;Gueguen, Maya;Thuiller, Wilfried
在地球仪上，外来入侵物种造成了严重的环境变化，改变了物种组成和生态系统功能。到目前为止，山区基本上没有受到大规模的入侵。然而，气候变化、土地利用废弃、旅游业的发展和日益增长的观赏贸易将削弱这些系统中入侵的障碍。因此，从管理的角度来看，了解外来物种将如何反应以及本地社区将如何影响它们的成功至关重要。在这里，我们使用了一个空间和时间上明确的模拟模型来预测入侵的风险，在未来的条件下，在法国阿尔卑斯山的保护山区。我们结合了气候变化、土地利用废弃和旅游业相关的繁殖压力增加等情景，以测试该地区外来物种的传播未来是否会增加。我们模拟已经归化的外来物种和新的观赏植物，占全球变化的组成部分之间的相互作用，也与本地植被的竞争。我们的研究结果表明，繁殖压力和气候变化将相互作用，以增加整体物种丰富度的归化外国人和新的外来物种，以及他们的海拔上限和区域范围的大小。在气候变化的影响下，木本外来物种的分布范围预计将增加一倍以上，草本物种将占据公园面积的20%。与此相反，土地利用的放弃将打开新的入侵机会木本外国人，但减少入侵的可能性归化和观赏外来草本植物作为本地树木的殖民化的结果。这强调了与原生植被的相互作用的重要性，无论是促进或潜在的遏制入侵。总的来说，我们的工作突出了阿尔卑斯山脆弱的山区植物群面临的一个额外的和以前低估的威胁，这些植物群已经面临气候变化、土地使用变化和旅游业的过度开发。
Across the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large-scale invasions. However, climate change, land-use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land-use abandonment and tourism-linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range-sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range-size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land-use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land-use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.