Ethical considerations and unanticipated consequences associated with ecological forecasting for marine resources
Ethical considerations and unanticipated consequences associated with ecological forecasting for marine resources
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DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fsy210
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发表时间：
2019-09-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Siedlecki, Samantha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hobday, Alistair J.;Hartog, Jason R.;Siedlecki, Samantha
现在可以在一系列时间尺度上预测海洋环境和生态系统状况，从临近预报到季节性和更长时间范围的预测。这些产品的交付为资源管理者和用户提供了对生态系统模式和未来条件的相关洞察，以支持这些利益相关者面临的与一系列目标相关的决策。预测发展的进展速度如此之快，以至于科学界可能没有充分考虑对利益相关者及其激励措施的影响。信息的传递，特别是有关未来状况和与之相关的不确定性的信息，涉及一系列判断或“道德”考虑，包括对预测失败的处理、利益相关者反应选项的不平等以及商业市场的赢家和输家。在这里，我们通过一系列涵盖商业捕鱼、休闲捕鱼、水产养殖和保护应用的案例研究来探讨这些经常意想不到的考虑因素。我们建议科学家及其研究合作伙伴需要考虑道德问题，以维护科学的完整性和对最终用户的公平性。根据这些案例研究和我们的经验，我们提出了一套十项原则，生态预测的开发者和用户可以考虑这些原则，以避免这些道德陷阱。总体而言，跨学科方法以及与最终用户的共同生产将为许多意外后果提供保障。
Forecasts of marine environmental and ecosystem conditions are now possible at a range of time scales, from nowcasts to forecasts over seasonal and longer time frames. Delivery of these products offers resource managers and users relevant insight into ecosystem patterns and future conditions to support decisions these stakeholders face associated with a range of objectives. The pace of progress in forecast development is so rapid that the scientific community may not be considering fully the impacts on stakeholders and their incentives. Delivery of information, particularly about future conditions and the uncertainties associated with it, involves a range of judgements, or "ethical" considerations, including treatment of forecast failure, inequity in stakeholder response options, and winners and losers in commercial markets. Here, we explore these often unanticipated considerations via a set of case studies spanning commercial fishing, recreational fishing, aquaculture, and conservation applications. We suggest that consideration of ethical issues by scientists and their research partners is needed to maintain scientific integrity and fairness to end users. Based on these case studies and our experience, we suggest a set of ten principles that might be considered by developers and users of ecological forecasts to avoid these ethical pitfalls. Overall, an interdisciplinary approach, and co-production with end users will provide insurance against many unanticipated consequences.