Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle
Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14972
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
L. McManus;V. Vasconcelos;S. Levin;D. Thompson;J. Kleypas;F. Castruccio;E. Curchitser;J. Watson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L. McManus;V. Vasconcelos;S. Levin;D. Thompson;J. Kleypas;F. Castruccio;E. Curchitser;J. Watson
鉴于快速的环境变化，量化区域和地方规模的珊瑚持久性驱动因素的贡献是必要的，以充分表征珊瑚礁系统的弹性。为了评估珊瑚三角区（CT）的珊瑚热扰动的多尺度响应，我们开发了一个空间显式的珊瑚-藻类竞争，包括季节性幼虫扩散和外部时空强迫的metacquitity模型。我们测试了CT地区及周边地区2，083个珊瑚礁在潜在未来温度制度下的珊瑚敏感性，有和没有年际气候变化，探索到2054年系统温度总体上升0.5-2.0°C的范围。我们发现，在未来的预测，珊瑚礁的生存概率和平均百分比珊瑚覆盖随着时间的推移，在很大程度上取决于存在或不存在的年际海面温度（SST）极端以及绝对温度的增加。总体而言，珊瑚礁，经历了SST时间序列过滤，以消除年际变化的生存机会大约是两倍的珊瑚礁未经过滤的SST。到预测期结束时，包含热异常相当于在没有异常的情况下SST预测至少增加0.5°C。在温度情景下，整个区域珊瑚覆盖率的变化差异很大，一些珊瑚礁经历了局部灭绝，而其他珊瑚礁则保持相对不变。水槽强度和当前的热应力阈值被认为是显着的驱动程序，这些模式，突出的重要性，在珊瑚网络中的幼虫连接和漂白敏感性的基础过程。
In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional‐ and local‐scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral–algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5–2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.