Hypothetical Thinking and Information Extraction in the Laboratory
Hypothetical Thinking and Information Extraction in the Laboratory
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DOI：
10.1257/mic.6.4.180
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发表时间：
2014-11-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Vespa, Emanuel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Esponda, Ignacio;Vespa, Emanuel
在一些共同价值环境中（E。例如，在一个实施例中，拍卖或选举），玩家应该在某些假设事件（例如，例如，在一个实施例中，赢得拍卖或成为关键人物）。我们设计了一个投票实验，以确定受试者是否做出这些推断，并区分假设性思维和信息提取。根据反馈，50%到80%的受试者表现得不理想。更重要的是，这些错误是由于难以从假设事件中提取信息，而不是从实际事件中提取信息。错误对经验和暗示来说是鲁棒的，并且在玩家没有私人信息的更一般的设置中也会出现。
In several common-value environments (e. g., auctions or elections), players should make informational inferences from opponents' strategies under certain hypothetical events (e. g., winning the auction or being pivotal). We design a voting experiment that identifies whether subjects make these inferences and distinguishes between hypothetical thinking and information extraction. Depending on feedback, between 50 and 80 percent of subjects behave nonoptimally. More importantly, these mistakes are driven by difficulty in extracting information from hypothetical, but not from actual, events. Mistakes are robust to experience and hints, and also arise in more general settings where players have no private information.