USING MONTANE MAMMALS TO MODEL EXTINCTIONS DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE
USING MONTANE MAMMALS TO MODEL EXTINCTIONS DUE TO GLOBAL CHANGE
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1523-1739.1992.06030409.x
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发表时间：
1992-09-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
BROWN, JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
MCDONALD, KA;BROWN, JH
我们利用大盆地中栖息在孤立山顶的北方哺乳动物群的物种-面积关系和嵌套子集结构的数据，开发了一个简单的定量模型，该模型预测了在气候和植被变化的假设情况下灭绝的物种的数量和身份。全球变暖3摄氏度预计将导致9-62%的损失。栖息在每一个山脉的物种的数量和整个地区14个物种中的3个物种的灭绝。这些结果表明：（1）在没有关于物种种群生物学的详细信息的情况下，有可能对物种灭绝的敏感性做出高度可信的预测;（2）全球和区域环境变化严重威胁着分布在自然“栖息地岛屿”和生物保护区的物种的生存。
We use data on the species-area relationship and the nested subset structure of the boreal mammal faunas inhabiting isolated mountaintops in the Great Basin to develop a simple quantitative model that predicts the number and identity of species that would go extinct under an assumed scenario of changing climate and vegetation Global warming of 3-degrees-C is predicted to cause the loss of 9-62% of the species inhabiting each mountain range and the extinction of three of fourteen species throughout the region. These results suggest (1) that it is possible to make highly plausible predictions about the susceptibility of species to extinction without detailed information about their population biology, and (2) that global and regional environmental changes seriously threaten the survival of species that are restricted in distribution to both natural "habitat islands" and biological reserves.