Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments
Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.06.021
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Nesgaard, T. I.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hagg, W.;Braun, L. N.;Nesgaard, T. I.
中亚地区的水土保持高度依赖天山山脉的水源.雪和冰的储存对当前的径流量有很大的贡献，特别是在夏季。两个径流模型具有不同的时间分辨率，HBV-ETH和OEZ，应用于天山山脉的三个冰川流域。情景运行产生的气候变化所造成的大气CO2加倍的GISS全球环流模型预测，并假设减少50%的冰川作用的范围，以及一个完整的冰川作用的折腾。协议的结果是最好的运行基于50%的冰川损失，其中两个模型预测春季和夏季径流增加相比，目前的水平。冰川完全融化的情景预测春季径流量会增加，随后7月和8月的径流量会降低。关于夏末径流减少的程度，模型预测各不相同。这些方案是敏感的模型模拟流域降水，以及减少冰川作用的范围。(c)2006 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
The and lowlands of Central Asia are highly dependent on the water supplied by the Tien Shan mountains. Snow and ice storage make large contributions to current runoff, particularly in summer. Two runoff models with different temporal resolutions, HBV-ETH and OEZ, were applied in three glaciated catchments of the Tien Shan mountains. Scenario runs were produced for a climate change caused by the doubling of atmospheric CO2 as predicted by the GISS global circulation model and assuming a 50% reduction of glaciation extent, as well as a complete toss of glaciation. Agreement of the results was best for runs based on 50% glaciation loss, where both models predict an increase in spring and summer runoff compared to current levels. Scenarios for complete toss of glaciation predict an increase in spring runoff levels, followed by lower runoff levels for July and August. Model predictions differ concerning the degree of reduction of late summer runoff. These scenarios are sensitive to model simulation of basin precipitation, as well as to reduction of glaciation extent. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.