Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource
Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource
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DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-16-0298.1
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发表时间：
2017-05
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Christopher;-J.;Smith;Julia;-A.;Crook;R. Crook;Lawrence;-S.;Jackson;Scott;-M.;Osprey;Piers;FORSTERa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Christopher;-J.;Smith;Julia;-A.;Crook;R. Crook;Lawrence;-S.;Jackson;Scott;-M.;Osprey;Piers;FORSTERa
近年来，由于在减少全球温室气体排放方面缺乏进展，人工改变气候以降低全球气温的地球工程思想越来越受到关注。平流层硫酸盐注入（SSI）是一种地球工程方法，旨在通过将一定比例的太阳辐射反射回太空来减少地球变暖，否则会使地表和低层大气变暖。我们分析了HadGEM 2-CCS气候模型的结果，平流层排放量为10 Tg yr-1的SO2，旨在抵消全球温度上升约1°C。由于直接辐射的减少，与基线未来气候变化情景（RCP4.5）相比，SSI下陆地上的聚光太阳能（CSP）输出平均减少5.9%。太阳能光伏（PV）能源通常受影响较小，因为它可以使用散射辐射，在SSI下增加，以直接辐射为代价。我们从HadGEM 2-CCS的结果进行了比较，从地球工程模型相互比较项目（GeoMIP）的GEOSCCM化学气候模型，5 Tg年-1的二氧化硫排放量。在许多地区，SSI和RCP4.5模拟之间预测的太阳能输出差异是稳健的，因为HadGEM 2-CCS和GEOSCCM模型的变化标志一致。此外，HadGEM 2-CCS评估的总辐射和直接年平均辐射变化的符号与世界大多数地区GeoMIP模型集合的多模型平均变化的符号一致。
In recent years, the idea of geoengineering, artificially modifying the climate to reduce global temperatures, has received increasing attention due to the lack of progress in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Stratospheric sulfate injection (SSI) is a geoengineering method proposed to reduce planetary warming by reflecting a proportion of solar radiation back into space that would otherwise warm the surface and lower atmosphere. We analyze results from the HadGEM2-CCS climate model with stratospheric emissions of 10 Tg yr-1 of SO2, designed to offset global temperature rise by around 1°C. A reduction in concentrating solar power (CSP) output of 5.9% on average over land is shown under SSI compared to a baseline future climate change scenario (RCP4.5) due to a decrease in direct radiation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is generally less affected as it can use diffuse radiation, which increases under SSI, at the expense of direct radiation. Our results from HadGEM2-CCS are compared to the GEOSCCM chemistry-climate model from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), with 5 Tg yr-1 emission of SO2. In many regions, the differences predicted in solar energy output between the SSI and RCP4.5 simulations are robust, as the sign of the changes for both the HadGEM2-CCS and GEOSCCM models agree. Furthermore, the sign of the total and direct annual mean radiation changes evaluated by HadGEM2-CCS agree with the sign of the multi-model mean changes of an ensemble of GeoMIP models over the majority of the world.