The future of natural gas infrastructure development in the United states
The future of natural gas infrastructure development in the United states
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.06.037
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发表时间：
2018-10-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Wise, Marshall A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feijoo, Felipe;Iyer, Gokul C.;Wise, Marshall A.
天然气市场的变化催生了管道基础设施规划的需求。以前的研究分析了天然气基础设施的发展，在很大程度上独立于天然气部门与更广泛的经济的互动。然而，天然气基础设施的发展受到更广泛的国内和国际社会经济条件的强烈影响。我们将全球人地系统模型与美国州级细节(GCAM-USA)结合起来，为天然气供需提供更广泛的社会经济背景，并将天然气基础设施投资模型(NANGAM)与天然气基础设施投资模型(NANGAM)结合起来，以考察一系列社会经济情景下美国州际天然气管道基础设施的发展。我们在这里表明，美国现有的管道基础设施不足以满足日益增长的天然气需求，需要对管道能力进行投资。然而，美国国内投资的地理分布是不同的，取决于现有基础设施的能力以及需求增长的幅度。我们的结果还说明了管道能力未得到充分利用的风险，特别是在以向低碳经济的长期系统性过渡为特征的情景下。更广泛地说，我们的研究强调了综合方法的价值，以促进知情决策。
Changes in the natural gas market have spawned the need for pipeline infrastructure planning. Previous studies have analyzed natural gas infrastructure development largely independent of the interactions of the natural gas sector with the broader economy. However, natural gas infrastructure development is strongly influenced by broader domestic and international socioeconomic conditions. We couple a global Human-Earth system model with state-level detail in the United States (GCAM-USA) that provides the broader socioeconomic context for natural gas supply and demand with a natural gas infrastructure investment model (NANGAM) to examine interstate natural gas pipeline infrastructure development in the U.S. under a range of socioeconomic scenarios. Here we show that existing pipeline infrastructure in the U.S. is insufficient to satisfy the increasing demand for natural gas and investments in pipeline capacity will be required. However, the geographic distribution of investments within the U.S. is heterogeneous and depends on the capacity of existing infrastructure as well as the magnitude of increase in demand. Our results also illustrate the risks of under-utilization of pipeline capacity, in particular, under a scenario characterized by long-term systemic transitions toward a low-carbon economy. More broadly, our study highlights the value of integrated approaches to facilitate informed decision-making.