A generic risk assessment framework to evaluate historical and future climate-induced risk for rainfed corn and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwest
A generic risk assessment framework to evaluate historical and future climate-induced risk for rainfed corn and soybean yield in the U.S. Midwest
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DOI：
10.1016/j.wace.2021.100369
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发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
8
通讯作者：
Wang Zhou;K. Guan;B. Peng;Zhuo Wang;R. Fu;B. Li;E. Ainsworth;E. DeLucia;Lei Zhao;Zhangliang Chen
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作者：
Wang Zhou;K. Guan;B. Peng;Zhuo Wang;R. Fu;B. Li;E. Ainsworth;E. DeLucia;Lei Zhao;Zhangliang Chen
随着全球气候变化，气温和降水波动加剧，极端事件更加频繁、更加强烈、持续时间更长，给全球粮食生产安全带来更大挑战。在这里，我们提出了一个通用框架，通过将合成气候生成的随机模型与经过充分验证的统计作物产量模型相结合，评估当前和未来情景下气候引起的作物产量风险的影响。综合气候模式是根据历史观测和预测的气候条件，使用扩展经验正交函数方法生成的。我们应用我们的框架来评估美国中西部历史和未来气候条件下的玉米和大豆产量风险。我们发现：（1）在美国中西部，玉米和大豆产量的年际变化分别有大约45%和40%可以用气候来解释； （2）美国中西部西南和西北地区风险水平较高，玉米和大豆较其他地区减产25%； (3) 用我们的方法量化的1988年和2012年大干旱的严重程度分别代表玉米的21年和30年事件，以及大豆的7年和12年事件； (4) 与当前气候条件相比，在未来气候情景（即 2050 年代表性浓度路径 8.5 或 RCP 8.5）下，作物产量风险将会增加，玉米和大豆的平均产量下降，产量变异性增加。本研究的框架和结果能够应用于农业部门的风险管理政策和实践。
Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation are expected to increase with global climate change, with more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting extreme events, posing greater challenges for the security of global food production. Here we proposed a generic framework to assess the impact of climate-induced crop yield risk under both current and future scenarios by combining a stochastic model for synthetic climate generation with a well-validated statistical crop yield model. The synthetic climate patterns were generated using the extended Empirical Orthogonal Function method based on historically observed and projected climate conditions. We applied our framework to assess the corn and soybean yield risk in the U.S. Midwest for historical and future climate conditions. We found that: (1) in the U.S. Midwest, about 45% and 40% of the interannual variability in corn and soybean yield, respectively, can be explained by the climate; (2) the risk level is higher in the southwest and northwest regions of the U.S. Midwest corresponding to 25% yield reduction for both corn and soybean compared to other regions; (3) the severity for the 1988 and 2012 major droughts quantified by our method represent 21-year and 30-year events for corn, and 7-year and 12-year events for soybean, respectively; (4) the crop yield risk will increase under a future climate scenario (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 or RCP 8.5 at 2050) compared with the current climate condition, with averaged yield decreases and yield variability increases for both corn and soybean. The framework and the results of this study enable applications for risk management policies and practices for the agriculture sectors.