The Political Economy of Famine: The Ukrainian Famine of 1933
The Political Economy of Famine: The Ukrainian Famine of 1933
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饥荒的政治经济学：1933 年的乌克兰饥荒
DOI：
10.1017/s0022050720000625
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Naumenko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Naumenko
1933年的乌克兰饥荒导致3200万人口中的260万人死亡。历史学家给出了三个主要解释：天气、经济政策、种族灭绝。本文证明：（1）现有数据不支持天气作为主要解释：1931年和1932年的天气预测收成大致等于1924年至1929年的平均水平;天气解释了高达8.1%的超额死亡。(2)政策（农业集体化和缺乏有利产业）显著增加了饥荒死亡率;集体化解释了高达52%的超额死亡。(3)有一些证据表明，乌克兰族和德国族受到歧视。
The 1933 Ukrainian famine killed as many as 2.6 million people out of a population of 32 million. Historians offer three main explanations: weather, economic policies, genocide. This paper documents that (1) available data do not support weather as the main explanation: 1931 and 1932 weather predicts harvest roughly equal to the 1924–1929 average; weather explains up to 8.1 percent of excess deaths. (2) Policies (collectivization of agriculture and the lack of favored industries) significantly increased famine mortality; collectivization explains up to 52 percent of excess deaths. (3) There is some evidence that ethnic Ukrainians and Germans were discriminated against.