Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abc2535
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发表时间：
2020-07-17
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Grenfell, Bryan T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Baker, Rachel E.;Yang, Wenchang;Grenfell, Bryan T.
初步证据表明，气候可能调节严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）的传播。然而，鉴于高易感性是一个核心驱动因素，目前尚不清楚气候的季节和地理变化是否能大幅改变大流行的轨迹。在这里，我们使用一个依赖于气候的流行病模型来模拟SARS-CoV-2大流行，通过探索基于已知冠状病毒生物学的不同场景。我们发现，虽然天气的变化可能对地方性感染很重要，但在新出现的病原体的大流行阶段，气候只会导致大流行规模的适度变化。对非药物控制措施的初步分析表明，它们可能通过易感者耗竭来缓和流行病与气候的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明，如果没有有效的控制措施，在更潮湿的气候中可能会发生强烈的疫情，夏季天气不会在很大程度上限制大流行的增长。
Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.