Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts
Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts
复制标题
预计南加州湾将发生 21 世纪沿海洪水。
DOI：
10.3390/jmse6030076
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
A. Foxgrover
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Erikson;P. Barnard;A. O’Neill;N. Wood;Jeanne M. Jones;J. F. Finzi Hart;S. Vitousek;P. Limber;M. Hayden;M. Fitzgibbon;J. Lovering;A. Foxgrover
本文是两个沿海风暴模拟系统（CoSMoS）的方法，量化的物理灾害和社会经济灾害暴露在受海平面上升和不断变化的沿海风暴影响的沿海地区的第二个。第1部分介绍的建模方法通过确定性地计算海平面上升、波浪、风暴潮、天文潮汐、河流排放和海岸线位置变化的综合危害，将大气全球尺度预测缩小到地方尺度沿海洪水影响。该方法是通过应用程序演示给南加州，美国，那里的海岸线是一个混合的悬崖，海滩，高度管理的沿海社区，和高经济价值的基础设施。结果表明，除了海平面上升25-500 cm外，纳入100年预测的沿海风暴将使洪水增加9-350%（平均增加53.0 ± 16.0 km 2）。更大的洪水范围意味着住宅影响增加55-110%，建筑物更换成本增加40-90%。为了传达危害和社会经济对这些危害的暴露范围，与利益攸关方和决策者合作设计并测试了一套工具;这些工具包括两个基于网络的绘图和分析应用程序以及虚拟现实可视化。为了接触更多的受众并提高数据的可用性，外联和参与包括针对目标最终用户的研讨会式培训和虚拟现实可视化的创新应用。
This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.013
发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
5
作者：
Rufat, Samuel;Tate, Eric;Maroof, Abu Sayeed
通讯作者：
Maroof, Abu Sayeed