Concession Period Decision Models for Public Infrastructure Projects Based on Option Games
Concession Period Decision Models for Public Infrastructure Projects Based on Option Games
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DOI：
10.1155/2015/671764
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Zhi Wang;Hua Tan;Jing Wang;Chunyan Hu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhi Wang;Hua Tan;Jing Wang;Chunyan Hu
特许期是公共基础设施项目投资建设的重要决策变量。然而，目前我们还没有科学的方法来准确地确定特许权期限。本文运用期权博弈理论寻求公共基础设施特许权期限的决策模型，研究了政府最低收益保证和政府投资对特许权期限的影响，并在文中公式中对模型进行了论证。研究结果表明，政府最低收入保证值的增加会缩短特许期，而收入波动性即不确定性的增加会延长特许期。在政府投资方面，随着政府投资比例的增加、收益的增加和保证值的降低，最优特许权期会有所延长。但是，由于保证值较高，当政府投资比例过大时，最优特许权期会缩短。在政府投资比例不变的情况下，政府会相应缩短特许经营期，但收益波动性和风险增大。政府应根据公共基础设施项目的具体情况，采用多种担保方式，实行灵活的特许权期限。
Concession period is an important decision-making variable for the investment and construction of public infrastructure projects. However, we currently have few scientific methods to exactly determine the concession period. This paper managed to seek out concession period decision models for public infrastructure with option game theory, studied the influence of minimum government income guarantee and government investment on concession period, and demonstrated those models in the formulas mentioned in the paper. The research results showed that the increase of minimum government income guarantee value would shorten the concession period, while the increase of income volatility, that is, the uncertainty, would lengthen the concession period. In terms of government investment, optimal concession period would lengthen to some extent with the increase of government investment ratio and the income and the decrease of its guarantee value. Yet, optimal concession period would shorten in case of extreme highness of the government investment ratio due to its high guarantee value. And the government would accordingly shorten the concession period in case of the unchanged government investment ratio with the increased income volatility and risks. Still, the paper put forward the argument that the government would apply various guarantee methods and implement flexible concession period in accordance with the specific circumstances of public infrastructure projects.