Self-exciting point process models of civilian deaths in Iraq
Self-exciting point process models of civilian deaths in Iraq
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DOI：
10.1057/sj.2011.21
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
Bertozzi, Andrea L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lewis, Erik;Mohler, George;Bertozzi, Andrea L.
我们本文的目标是描述伊拉克平民暴力死亡的时间模式。由于安全环境在同样不同的时间尺度上发生变化，这些模式预计会在从几年到几分钟的时间尺度上演变。为了评估多个时间尺度在不断演变的安全威胁中的重要性，我们开发了一种类似于地震分析中使用的自激点过程模型。这里，暴力事件的发生率被分为背景率和前景自激分量。假设背景率在相对较长的时间范围内发生变化。前景自激（其中事件引发暴力发生率增加）被认为是短暂的。我们利用伊拉克 2003 年至 2007 年间平民死亡人数统计数据来探索该模型。我们的结果表明，自激占所有暴力事件的 37-50%，并且自激最多持续两到六周，具体取决于相关地区。考虑到这些不同时间范围的暴力可能会有益于采取适当的安全应对措施。安全杂志 (2012) 25, 244-264。 doi：10.1057/sj.2011.21； 2011 年 9 月 19 日在线发布
Our goal in this article is to characterize temporal patterns of violent civilian deaths in Iraq. These patterns are expected to evolve on time-scales ranging from years to minutes as a result of changes in the security environment on equally varied time-scales. To assess the importance of multiple time-scales in evolving security threats, we develop a self-exciting point process model similar to that used in earthquake analysis. Here the rate of violent events is partitioned into a background rate and a foreground self-exciting component. Background rates are assumed to change on relatively long time-scales. Foreground self-excitation, in which events trigger an increase in the rate of violence, is assumed to be short-lived. We explore the model using data from Iraq Body Count on civilian deaths between 2003 and 2007. Our results indicate that self-excitation makes up as much as 37-50 per cent of all violent events and that self-excitation lasts at most between two and six weeks, depending upon the district in question. Appropriate security responses may benefit from taking these different time-scales of violence into consideration. Security Journal (2012) 25, 244-264. doi:10.1057/sj.2011.21; published online 19 September 2011