2 . 3 DETECTABILITY OF ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES-猫眼课题宝

2.

DOI：

发表时间：

期刊：

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

文献类型：

作者：

G. Hegerl;W. Zwiers

检测人为气候变化的目标是确定是否可以在观测中发现由于大气成分的人为变化而引起的模型模拟变化，以及这些强迫的变化是否为观测到的变化提供了一致的解释。虽然大规模和年平均气温的变化特别适合检测和量化人为气候变化（Mitchell等，2001），但气候变率和极端气候事件的变化将对社会产生更大的影响。然而，对极端气候的人为变化的检测尚未完成。本文旨在通过研究气候模型数据中模拟变化的可检测性，为检测极端情况下的人为气候变化奠定基础。我们使用极端气候指数，这些指数特别适合将结果与年度和季节变化指数进行直接比较。这可以解决阻碍极端气候变化检测的几个问题：其中一个问题是每日全球范围观测的可用性有限。这个问题最近正在改善（NCDC，pers.com.），并且一些in-

The goal of the detection of anthropogenic climate change is to establish if model simulated changes due to anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere can be found in observations, and if these changes in forcing provide a consistent explanation for the observed change. While changes in large scale and annual mean temperature are particularly suitable to detect and quantify anthropogenic climate change (Mitchell et al., 2001), changes in climate variability and extreme climatic events will have a stronger impact on society. Nevertheless, the detection of anthropogenic changes in climate extremes has not yet been accomplished. This paper aims at setting the stage for a detection of anthropogenic climate changes in extremes by studying the detectability of simulated changes within data from climate models. We use indices for climate extremes that are particularly suitable for a direct comparison of results with indices for annual and seasonal changes. This can address several problems that are hampering the detection of climate change in extremes: One problem is the limited availability of daily global-scale observations. This problem is improving recently (NCDC, pers. com.) and some in-

2 . 3 DETECTABILITY OF ANTHROPOGENIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION EXTREMES

2.

文献摘要

被引文献

相似文献