The economic impact of climate driven changes in water availability in Switzerland
The economic impact of climate driven changes in water availability in Switzerland
复制标题
气候驱动的瑞士水资源变化对经济的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Vielle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Anne;C. Gonseth;M. Vielle
瑞士已经并将继续受到气候变化的影响。IPCC在其第四次评估报告中确实预测，与1990年的水平相比，到2050年，冬季气温将上升约2摄氏度，夏季气温将上升2.5摄氏度。到那时，预计冬季降水量将增加约8%，夏季降水量将减少15%。这些变化必然会影响水文循环，并以多种方式改变水的供需，从而突出了了解气候变化的水文后果及其对瑞士经济影响的重要性。事实上，这项研究的广泛目标是估计2050年瑞士气候变化引起的水资源供应变化的经济影响。这项研究使用了Gemini-E3，这是一个专门为分析气候变化和能源政策而设计的可计算的一般均衡模型。这一模式最初由包括瑞士在内的28个地区和18个不同部门组成。该模式的部门结构正在扩大，以便评估气候变化对特别敏感部门的经济影响，并研究具体适应措施在减轻气候变化成本方面的作用。为了评估可用水变化的后果，将原水资源作为生产要素引入双子座E3。此外，还为瑞士指定了饮用水分配部门，并提议对农业进行更详细的说明，以便准确分析限制供水的经济后果。对2050年水资源可获得性的预测来自为瑞士开发的水文模型，并考虑了欧盟总体项目的替代气候变化情景。模拟表明，与基准情景相比，水资源可获得性可能受到的限制将大幅提高原水价格。受影响最大的部门是饮用水分配和使用灌溉的农业部门。然而，全球经济对瑞士的影响很小，因为瑞士的原水价格很低，而且在基准情景下其价值很小。最后，对具有不同经济内生适应能力水平的情景的模拟揭示了适应气候变化可能产生的经济影响。
Switzerland is already and will continue to be affected by climate change. In its fourth assessment report, the IPCC indeed predicts a temperature increase of approximately 2 °C during winter and 2.5 °C during summer until 2050 compared to 1990 levels. By then, precipitation is estimated to increase by about 8% during winter and decrease by 15% in summer. These changes are bound to affect the hydrological cycle and alter both water supply and demand in multiple ways, thus highlighting the importance of understanding the hydrological consequences of climate change and their impact on the Swiss economy. Indeed, the broad objective of this study is to estimate the economic impact of changes in water availability due to climate change at a 2050 time horizon in Switzerland. This study employs GEMINI-E3, a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the analysis of climate change and energy policies. This model originally comprises 28 regions, including Switzerland, and 18 different sectors. The sectoral structure of the model is being extended in order to assess the economic impacts of climate change on particularly sensitive sectors and to study the role of specific adaptation measures for alleviating climate change costs. To assess the consequences of changes in water availability, raw water resources are introduced as a production factor into GEMINI-E3. Further, a drinking water distribution sector is specified for Switzerland and a more detailed representation of agriculture is proposed to allow for a precise analysis of the economic consequences of restricted water supply. Predictions of water availability in 2050 are taken from a hydrological model developed for Switzerland and alternative climate change scenarios from the EU-ENSEMBLES project are considered. Simulations show that possible restrictions in water resource availability will increase raw water prices substantially compared to the benchmark scenario. Sectors most affected are drinking water distribution and agricultural sectors that use irrigation. However, the global economic impact for Switzerland is small due to the low price of raw water in Switzerland and its small value in the benchmark scenario. Finally, the simulation of scenarios featuring alternative levels of endogenous adaptive capacity of the economy reveals the possible economic impact of adaptation to climate change.