Thirty-year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts
Thirty-year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts
复制标题
亚洲开发银行预测的三十年评估
DOI：
10.1111/apel.12333
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yoichi Tsuchiya
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tran Lam Anh Duong;Yoichi Tsuchiya
本研究评估了亚洲开发银行（ADB）1989年至2019年间对45个国家的预测表现，得出以下结果：首先，预测的准确性和偏差因国家和变量而异；其次，亚洲货币和全球金融危机对GDP和通胀预测的准确性产生了不利影响，而对经常项目预测的准确性则没有影响；第三，亚行的预测大体上是公正的；第四，通胀预测有效，但GDP和经常账户预测无效；最后，各国地区普遍保持不偏不倚。这些结果表明，亚行在为全球政策制定者和企业提供可靠的经济前景方面发挥着基础经济作用。
This study assesses the performance of the forecasts of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for 45 countries between 1989 and 2019 with the following results: first, forecast accuracy and bias vary among countries and across variables; second, the Asian currency and global financial crises adversely affected the GDP and inflation forecast accuracy, whereas there were no such impacts on the current account forecast accuracy; third, the ADB's forecasts are broadly unbiased; fourth, inflation forecasts are efficient but the GDP and current account forecasts are not; finally, unbiasedness is broadly robust for the countries' regions. These results suggest that the ADB plays a grounding economic role in providing a reliable economic outlook for policymakers and businesses world wide.