Carbon Price in China: A CO2 Abatement Cost of Wind Power Perspective
Carbon Price in China: A CO2 Abatement Cost of Wind Power Perspective
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DOI：
10.1080/1540496x.2017.1386547
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发表时间：
2017-10
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Boqiang Lin;Yufang Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Boqiang Lin;Yufang Chen
随着工业化和城市化的快速发展，能源（尤其是化石燃料）的需求日益增长。因此，中国面临着巨大的环境保护和二氧化碳减排压力。促进风电替代火电的上网电价政策和运行良好的碳价机制对二氧化碳减排具有显著影响，两者可以相互协调，实现减排目标。利用面板模型，我们证明了上网电价补贴政策比其他政策更有效地促进了风电的发展。此外，经济增长放缓、能源替代、技术进步和二氧化碳减排要求也会刺激风电的扩张。此外，在风电实际减排成本计算的基础上，我们得到了各省和全国平均碳价（239元/吨和242元/吨）。具体来说，233-251元/吨将是未来合理的碳价区间。我们发现，由于免费配额比例较高，本文中的碳价格高于2014年和2015年的排放交易计划试点。基于以上结论，我们提出了一些政策建议。
ABSTRACT As a result of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, energy (especially fossil fuels) demand growth is increasing. Hence, China is facing the huge pressure of environmental protection and CO2 emission reduction. The feed-in tariff (FIT) policy that promotes more wind power to substitute for thermal power and a well-functioning carbon price mechanism can significantly affect CO2 abatement, and both can work in coordination to achieve emission reduction. Using panel model, we prove that FIT policy is more effective than other policies in promoting more wind power. Also the slowdown of economic growth, energy substitution, technological progress, and CO2 mitigation requirement can stimulate the expansion of wind power. Additionally, based on the calculation of real abatement cost of wind power, we obtain the provincial and national average of carbon prices (239 CNY/ton and 242 CNY/ton). Specifically, 233-251 CNY/ton will be the range for reasonable carbon price in the future. We find that the carbon prices in this article are higher than those of the emissions trading scheme pilots in 2014 and 2015, due to the relatively high proportion of free allowance. Based on the above conclusions, we proposed some policy suggestions.