Greenhouse gas mitigation in Chinese agriculture: Distinguishing technical and economic potentials
Greenhouse gas mitigation in Chinese agriculture: Distinguishing technical and economic potentials
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.008
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发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Moran, Dominic
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang, Wen;Koslowski, Frank;Moran, Dominic
中国是世界上最大的温室气体排放国，2005年排放量为74.67亿吨二氧化碳当量（CO（2）e），其中农业排放量占11%。与其他地方一样，由于农业系统的生物物理复杂性和异质性，以及其他社会经济障碍，中国的农业减排政策面临着一系列挑战。现有的研究有助于我们更好地了解这一部门减缓措施的技术潜力（即哪些措施有效）。但就政策目的而言，重要的是将这些措施转化为可行的经济潜力，这就提供了一个视角，看农业减排（措施）相对于缓解措施和其他经济部门提供的总体潜力而言成本是否较低。我们开发了一个自下而上的边际减排成本曲线（MACC），代表除了照常经营的农业实践适用的缓解措施的成本。MACC的结果表明，虽然该部门在2020年提供了402 MtCO（2）e的最大技术潜力，但在零成本或负成本（即成本节约）的情况下可能减少135 MtCO（2）e，并且可以以低于阈值碳价格的成本减少176 MtCO（2）e（约占总量的44
China is now the world's biggest annual emitter of greenhouse gases with 7467 million tons (Mt) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO(2)e) in 2005, with agriculture accounting for 11% of this total. As elsewhere, agricultural emissions mitigation policy in China faces a range of challenges due to the biophysical complexity and heterogeneity of farming systems, as well as other socioeconomic barriers. Existing research has contributed to improving our understanding of the technical potential of mitigation measures in this sector (i.e. what works). But for policy purposes it is important to convert these measures into a feasible economic potential, which provides a perspective on whether agricultural emissions reduction (measures) are low cost relative to mitigation measures and overall potential offered by other sectors of the economy. We develop a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) representing the cost of mitigation measures applicable in addition to business-as-usual agricultural practices. The MACC results demonstrate that while the sector offers a maximum technical potential of 402 MtCO(2)e in 2020, a reduction of 135 MtCO(2)e is potentially available at zero or negative cost (i.e. a cost saving), and 176 MtCO(2)e (approximately 44% of the total) can be abated at a cost below a threshold carbon price