Analyzing the climate sensitivity of the coupled water-electricity demand nexus in the Midwestern United States
Analyzing the climate sensitivity of the coupled water-electricity demand nexus in the Midwestern United States
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113466
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发表时间：
2019-10-15
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Nateghi, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Obringer, R.;Kumar, R.;Nateghi, R.
计算水和电需求之间的关系对于确保效率和节约措施成功降低城市的净用水和用电量至关重要。考虑这种关系对于准确估计需求的价格弹性和设计有效的需求响应方案也至关重要。随着城市受到全球气候和社会经济变化以及前所未有的城市化和增长速度等因素的压力，水电需求关系的重要性正在迅速增加。尽管最近对电力和水需求建模进行了广泛的研究，但仍然存在重大的知识差距，主要根源在于：（i）使用单变量方法，无法充分说明需求关系;（ii）缺乏对气候驱动因素在需求关系中的作用的全面评估。为了解决这些差距，我们提出了一个多元（即，多响应），用于评估耦合水电需求关系的气候敏感性的算法框架。为了说明所提出的框架的适用性，六个中西部城市被选为测试案例。结果表明，仅气候变化就可以解释经季节调整数据集水电需求关系中23-71%的变化，以及未经调整数据集的47-87%的变化。结果还显示，用水比用电对气候更敏感。此外，还证明了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动周期等全球气候驱动因素的变异性的重要性。模拟结果表明，较强的厄尔尼诺现象导致选定城市的水和电使用中对气候敏感的部分总体减少。
Accounting for the nexus between water and electricity demand is critical for ensuring efficiency and conservation measures are successful in lowering the net water and electricity use in a city. Considering the nexus is also critical for accurately estimating the price elasticity of demand and designing effective demand response programs. The importance of the water-electricity demand nexus is rapidly increasing as cities are stressed by factors such as global climatic and socioeconomic changes as well as unprecedented rates of urbanization and growth. Despite the extensive recent research efforts on electricity and water demand modeling, significant knowledge gaps remain that are primarily rooted in (i) the use of univariate approaches that cannot adequately account for the nexus and (ii) the lack of a comprehensive assessment of the role of climate drivers on the demand nexus. To address these gaps, we propose a multivariate (i.e., multi-response), algorithmic framework for assessing the climate-sensitivity of the coupled water-electricity demand nexus. To illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework, six Midwestern cities were selected as test cases. The results indicated that climate variability alone could account for 23-71% of variability in the water-electricity demand nexus with the seasonally adjusted dataset, and 47-87% of the variability on the non-adjusted dataset. The results also revealed that water use was more climate-sensitive than electricity use. Additionally, the importance of the variability in the global climate drivers such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation cycle was demonstrated. The modeling results suggest that stronger El Ninos lead to an overall decrease in the climate-sensitive portion of the water and electricity use in the selected cities.