Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5 째C to 2.0 째C global warming levels
Additional risk in extreme precipitation in China from 1.5 째C to 2.0 째C global warming levels
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scib.2017.12.021
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发表时间：
2018-02-28
期刊：
影响因子：
18.9
通讯作者：
Sun, Ying
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Wei;Jiang, Zhihong;Sun, Ying
为了避免气候变化带来的危险影响，《巴黎协定》提出了两个雄心勃勃的目标：将全球变暖限制在远低于2摄氏度的范围内，并努力将全球变暖控制在比工业化前水平高出1.5摄氏度的范围内。由于气候变化风险可能是区域依赖性的，在这两个全球变暖水平下，中国极端降水的强度和概率的变化进行了研究的基础上，从耦合模式比对项目第5阶段的模拟。重点是由于从1.5摄氏度到2摄氏度的额外半度变暖而增加的变化。结果表明，区域平均变化的幅度不依赖于重现期的相对增加约7%和11%，在1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度的全球变暖水平，分别。全球变暖的额外半度增加了近4%的幅度。区域平均发生概率的变化表现出对重现期的依赖性，较罕见的事件（重现期较长）具有较大的风险增加。对于100年的历史事件，在1.5摄氏度和2摄氏度的全球变暖水平上，概率预计分别增加1.6和2.4倍。极端降水的预计变化与RCP情景无关。(C)中国科学出版社.爱思唯尔公司、科学中国出版社出版。All rights reserved.
To avoid dangerous climate change impact, the Paris Agreement sets out two ambitious goals: to limit the global warming to be well below 2 degrees C and to pursue effort for the global warming to be below 1.5 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. As climate change risks may be region-dependent, changes in magnitude and probability of extreme precipitation over China are investigated under those two global warming levels based on simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Projects Phase 5. The focus is on the added changes due to the additional half a degree warming from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C. Results show that regional average changes in the magnitude do not depend on the return periods with a relative increase around 7% and 11% at the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels, respectively. The additional half a degree global warming adds an additional increase in the magnitude by nearly 4%. The regional average changes in term of occurrence probabilities show dependence on the return periods, with rarer events (longer return periods) having larger increase of risk. For the 100-year historical event, the probability is projected to increase by a factor of 1.6 and 2.4 at the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels, respectively. The projected changes in extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios. (C) 2017 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved.