Mathematical models for invasive species management: Grey squirrel control on Anglesey
Mathematical models for invasive species management: Grey squirrel control on Anglesey
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.05.020
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发表时间：
2017-09-10
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Shuttleworth, Craig
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Hannah;White, Andrew;Shuttleworth, Craig
控制入侵物种和保护受威胁的本地物种需要完善的政策和物种管理策略。数学模型提供了一个关键工具，可以用来测试、开发和优化管理入侵物种的策略。我们使用英国安格尔西岛上的本地红松鼠和入侵的灰松鼠系统作为一个案例研究系统，其中参数化了一个数学模型，其中包括灰松鼠的控制。我们开发了一个随机的空间模型，它代表了安格尔西岛和邻近大陆的真实栖息地结构、分布和联系，包括红灰松鼠痘系统的关键种群和流行病学动态。该模型还包括捕获和清除灰松鼠的表示，这是根据1998年至2013年期间安格尔西岛灰松鼠被清除和红松鼠被重新引入的野外数据参数化的。该模型用于评估保护红松鼠免受灰松鼠再次入侵岛屿的不同管理程序，包括大陆地方性灰松鼠种群造成的松鼠痘传播威胁。这一发现对整个英国和欧洲濒危红松鼠的保护具有重要意义。此外，建模框架是基于众所周知的竞争和流行病学相互作用的经典模型，因此这些技术可以更广泛地适应和应用于管理各种自然系统中入侵物种的威胁。(C) 2017 Elsevier B.V.版权所有
The control of invasive species and protection of threatened native species require well-developed policy and species management strategies. Mathematical models provide a key tool that can be used to test, develop and optimise strategies to manage invasive species. We use the native red squirrel and invasive grey squirrel system on the Island of Anglesey, UK, as a case study system in which to parameterise a mathematical model that includes the control of grey squirrels. We develop a stochastic, spatial model that represents the real habitat structure, distribution and linkage on Anglesey and the neighbouring mainland and includes the key population and epidemiological dynamics of the red-grey-squirrelpox system. The model also includes a representation of the trapping and removal of grey squirrels which is parameterised from field data on Anglesey in which grey squirrel were removed and red squirrels reintroduced between 1998-2013. The model is used to assess different management procedures to protect red squirrels from island re-invasion by grey squirrels, including the threat of squirrelpox spread posed by endemic mainland grey populations. The findings have important implications for the conservation of threatened red squirrels throughout the UK and in Europe. Moreover, the modelling framework is based on well-understood, classical models of competitive and epidemiological interactions and therefore the techniques can be adapted and applied more generally to manage the threat of invasive species in a wide range of natural systems. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.