Detection, Attribution, and Projection of Regional Rainfall Changes on (Multi-) Decadal Time Scales: A Focus on Southeastern South America
Detection, Attribution, and Projection of Regional Rainfall Changes on (Multi-) Decadal Time Scales: A Focus on Southeastern South America
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（多）十年时间尺度上区域降雨变化的检测、归因和预测：以南美洲东南部为重点
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0287.1
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
L. Jia
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Honghai Zhang;T. Delworth;F. Zeng;G. Vecchi;Karen Paffendorf;L. Jia
南美洲东南部(包括阿根廷北部、乌拉圭、巴西南部和巴拉圭)夏季(11月至4月)观测到的降水表现出很大的低频变化，在20世纪呈数十年增湿趋势，随后在本世纪呈十年干旱趋势。了解造成这些变化的机制对于预测长期降雨量变化至关重要。在这里，作者利用GFDL CM2.5和FLOR-FA这两个高分辨率全球气候模式进行了一系列的归属实验，研究了这些区域降雨量变化的原因。这两个模型都再现了二十世纪的增湿趋势，尽管幅度比观测到的要小，以应对与温室气体增加相关的辐射强迫。不断增加的温室气体推动了热带扩张；因此，哈德利环流的副热带干燥分支离开了SESA，导致了降雨……
AbstractObserved austral summertime (November through April) rainfall in southeastern South America (SESA)—including northern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil, and Paraguay—has exhibited substantial low-frequency variations with a multidecadal moistening trend during the twentieth century and a subsequent decadal drying trend during the current century. Understanding the mechanisms responsible for these variations is essential for predicting long-term rainfall changes. Here with a suite of attribution experiments using a pair of high-resolution global climate models, GFDL CM2.5 and FLOR-FA, the authors investigate the causes of these regional rainfall variations. Both models reproduce the twentieth-century moistening trend, albeit with a weaker magnitude than observed, in response to the radiative forcing associated with increasing greenhouse gases. The increasing greenhouse gases drive tropical expansion; consequently, the subtropical dry branch of Hadley cell moves away from SESA, leading to the rain...