Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
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发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
规划对流感大流行株爆发的应对措施是一项高度优先的公共卫生事项。三个研究小组使用不同的基于个人的随机模拟模型，研究了与美国公共卫生工作者协商选择的干预策略的后果。第一个目标是模拟一组潜在可行的干预策略的有效性。被称为有针对性的分层遏制（TLC）的流感抗病毒治疗和预防和隔离，隔离，学校关闭，社区社交距离和工作场所社交距离的非药物干预的组合被认为是。第二个目标是检查结果对模型假设的鲁棒性。比较的重点是在类似于芝加哥的人口中爆发的大流行病，大约有860万人。模拟表明，在大流行毒株的预期传播性下，及时实施有针对性的家庭抗病毒预防和社交距离措施相结合，可以在高效疫苗问世之前大幅降低疾病发病率。及时采取措施和关闭学校发挥了重要作用。由于目前缺乏建立此类模型所依据的数据，建议开展进一步的实地研究，以更多地了解传播来源以及社交距离措施在减少流感传播方面的有效性。
Planning a response to an outbreak of a pandemic strain of influenza is a high public health priority. Three research groups using different individual-based, stochastic simulation models have examined the consequences of intervention strategies chosen in consultation with U.S. public health workers. The first goal is to simulate the effectiveness of a set of potentially feasible intervention strategies. Combinations called targeted layered containment (TLC) of influenza antiviral treatment and prophylaxis and nonpharmaceutical interventions of quarantine, isolation, school closure, community social distancing, and workplace social distancing are considered. The second goal is to examine the robustness of the results to model assumptions. The comparisons focus on a pandemic outbreak in a population similar to that of Chicago, with approximate to 8.6 million people. The simulations suggest that at the expected transmissibility of a pandemic strain, timely implementation of a combination of targeted household antiviral prophylaxis, and social distancing measures could substantially lower the illness attack rate before a highly efficacious vaccine could become available. Timely initiation of measures and school closure play important roles. Because of the current lack of data on which to base such models, further field research is recommended to learn more about the sources of transmission and the effectiveness of social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission.