Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector
Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.003
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Young, William J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ekstroem, Marie;Kuruppu, Natasha;Young, William J.
以往的气候风险评估提供了重要的方法学见解，说明如何得出易于处理的研究问题和在不确定情况下适当使用数据，以及确定受益于利益攸关方参与的步骤。在这里，我们建议使用一个框架，系统和客观的探索气候风险评估。该汇总表便于对有关目标和背景、主要成果、方法选择、利益攸关方参与、不确定性的来源和特点以及总体弱点的信息进行细分。然后，我们将矩阵应用于水部门的三个风险评估，以探索与气候模型输出（自上而下）密切相关的方法的一些方法优势和弱点，而不是那些来自当地气候暴露知识（自下而上）的方法，并证明与社会和物理科学更紧密的结合更有可能产生强大的气候风险评估。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.