Variability of summer cyanobacteria abundance: can season-ahead forecasts improve beach management?
Variability of summer cyanobacteria abundance: can season-ahead forecasts improve beach management?
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DOI：
10.1080/10402381.2022.2084799
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发表时间：
2022-06
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
M. Beal;B. O'Reilly;Caitlin Soley;Kaitlynn R. Hietpas;P. Block
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Beal;B. O'Reilly;Caitlin Soley;Kaitlynn R. Hietpas;P. Block
Beal MRW, O 'Reilly BE, Soley CK, Hietpas KR, Block PJ。2022. 夏季蓝藻丰度的变化：季节预报能改善海滩管理吗？湖泊保护区管理39:37-52。由于人为的富营养化和相关的蓝藻增加继续困扰着内陆水体，当地官员正在寻求新的方法来主动管理水资源。卫生官员特别关注蓝藻，因为它们能够产生危险的肝毒素和神经毒素，这些毒素会威胁到用于娱乐和饮用水的水体。然而，目前还没有蓝藻的前景，可以在季节性的时间尺度上提供潜在威胁的预警。在这项研究中，利用当地和全球尺度的季节前水文气候预测器开发了一个统计模型，以评估6月至8月期间威斯康星州富营养化湖泊蓝藻生物量和相关海滩关闭预测的潜力。该模型是作为亚季节到季节性蓝藻预测系统的一部分开发的，以优化整个蓝藻高峰季节的湖泊管理。与6 - 8月蓝藻观察结果相比，模型技能显著（Pearson相关系数= 0.62，Heidke技能得分= 0.38）。本文提出的建模框架展示了令人鼓舞的预测技能，并为先进的海滩管理应用提供了可能性。
Abstract Beal MRW, O’Reilly BE, Soley CK, Hietpas KR, Block PJ. 2022. Variability of summer cyanobacteria abundance: can season-ahead forecasts improve beach management? Lake Reserv Manage. 39:37–52. As anthropogenic eutrophication and the associated increase of cyanobacteria continue to plague inland waterbodies, local officials are seeking novel methods to proactively manage water resources. Cyanobacteria are of particular concern to health officials due to their ability to produce dangerous hepatotoxins and neurotoxins, which can threaten waterbodies for recreational and drinking-water purposes. Presently, however, there is no cyanobacteria outlook that can provide advance warning of a potential threat at the seasonal time scale. In this study, a statistical model is developed utilizing local and global scale season-ahead hydroclimatic predictors to evaluate the potential for informative cyanobacteria biomass and associated beach closure forecasts across the June–August season for a eutrophic lake in Wisconsin (United States). This model is developed as part of a subseasonal to seasonal cyanobacteria forecasting system to optimize lake management across the peak cyanobacteria season. Model skill is significant in comparison to June–August cyanobacteria observations (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.62, Heidke skill score = 0.38). The modeling framework proposed here demonstrates encouraging prediction skill and offers the possibility of advanced beach management applications.