The India-Pakistan Nuclear Dyad and Regional Nuclear Dynamics
The India-Pakistan Nuclear Dyad and Regional Nuclear Dynamics
复制标题
印巴核二元与地区核动态
DOI：
10.1353/asp.2015.0019
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. K. Singh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. K. Singh
核武器在各个阶段-在已建立的军械库中，在潜在能力中，或者仅仅是在萌芽中-在亚洲都很活跃、很好、很兴旺。阿什利·泰利斯（Ashley Tellis）非常恰当地写道：“考虑到亚洲有争议的地缘政治，这是由几个持久的竞争，许多悬而未决的领土争端，重大的地方权力转移，以及现在中国崛起引发的整个大陆的焦虑所定义的，核武器保持其至关重要性并不奇怪。“1为了正确看待南亚核环境的问题，必须从历史和区域的角度看待争端、对抗和参与者。本文首先简要回顾了印巴核态势的区域性历史，然后具体分析了印巴两国的核态势和核政策，以及中国对印度的核政策。最后，本文得出结论认为，印巴核二元体必须在更广泛的亚太地区核动态的背景下来理解。印巴核动态的区域维度1947年之前，印度次大陆被阿富汗、西藏和缅甸等缓冲国所包围，该地区的外部参与者是英国和俄罗斯。独立后不久，巴基斯坦就与印度开战，占领了查谟和克什米尔的一部分。巴基斯坦后来加入了东南亚条约组织（SEATO）和中央条约组织（CENTO），将美国及其盟国带入次大陆，以抵抗苏联的影响。西藏在20世纪50年代被中国接管，使中国成为南亚地缘政治和战略环境的重要参与者。在20世纪50年代中后期，中国还占领了阿克赛钦，这是查谟和克什米尔的一部分，导致了1962年中印战争。1965年和1971年印度和巴基斯坦之间的两次战争最终涉及美国和苏联。在1970年代末和1980年代，苏联入侵阿富汗，引发了美国和中国等国支持的叛乱。结果，在冷战肆虐的同时，南亚经历了四次大的战争。这一统计不包括阿富汗战争;巴基斯坦的分裂和孟加拉国的建立;美国、苏联和中国在次大陆的持续介入;以及中国的核化及其进入联合国和联合国安理会理事会。这一切是印巴、印中二分体的产生，还是美苏中印巴“大博弈”的产物？我们今天能忘记这段最近的历史，仅仅通过冷战二元的透镜来看待次大陆的动态吗？冷战时期的超级大国有着根深蒂固的意识形态竞争，但它们之间没有领土争议，也没有长期的武装冲突史。因此，冷战的二元动力学是否适用于印度-巴基斯坦-中国核三国，这三个国家确实存在领土争端并进行了战争？由于上述原因，将冷战的二元动态应用于印度-巴基斯坦-中国三位一体是一种错位的逻辑。印度与原子弹的幽会几乎和原子弹本身一样古老。1944年，Homi Bhabha提交了一份关于核能的报告，一年后塔塔基础研究所成立。印度独立后的早期领导人了解原子能的双重用途。他们于1948年4月制定了《原子能法》，后来于1954年创建了巴巴原子研究中心。1956年，印度的Apsara是亚洲第一个投入运行的核研究反应堆。在那个阶段，印度本可以选择建立自己的核武器计划，但其领导人选择宣称核裁军，几乎没有意识到核精灵已经从瓶子里出来了。…
Nuclear weapons in various stages-in established armories, latent capacity, or merely embryonic potential-are alive, well, and thriving in Asia. Ashley Tellis has very aptly written that "given the contested geopolitics of Asia, which is defined by several enduring rivalries, many unresolved territorial disputes, significant local power transitions, and now the continent-wide anxieties provoked by the rise of China, it is not surprising that nuclear weapons have retained their critical importance."1 To put the South Asian dimension of the nuclear environment in its correct perspective, it is critical to view the disputes, rivalries, and players involved in a historical and regional context. This essay begins with a brief historical overview of the regional dimension of India-Pakistan nuclear dynamics and then looks more specifically at the perspectives and nuclear policies of India and Pakistan, as well as on China's nuclear policy vis-a-vis India. Finally, the essay concludes by asserting that the India-Pakistan nuclear dyad must be understood within the context of broader nuclear dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.The Regional Dimension of India-Pakistan Nuclear DynamicsBefore 1947 the Indian subcontinent was surrounded by the buffer states of Afghanistan, Tibet, and Burma, and the external players in the region were Britain and Russia. Soon after independence, Pakistan fought a war with India and occupied a part of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan later joined the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), bringing the United States and its alliances into the subcontinent in an effort to resist the influence of the Soviet Union. Tibet was taken over by China in the 1950s, introducing China as an important actor in the South Asian geopolitical and strategic environment. In the mid to late 1950s, China also occupied Aksai Chin, a part of Jammu and Kashmir, which in 1962 led to the Sino-Indian War. Two additional wars between India and Pakistan in 1965 and 1971 ultimately involved both the United States and Soviet Union. Then, in the late 1970s and 1980s, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan met with an insurgency supported by the United States and China, among others.Consequently, while the Cold War was raging, South Asia experienced four major wars. This count excludes the wars in Afghanistan; the breakup of Pakistan and creation of Bangladesh; the persistent involvement of the United States, the Soviet Union, and China on the subcontinent; and the nuclearization of China and its entry into the United Nations and the UN Security Council. Was all this due to the creation of the India-Pakistan dyad and the India-China dyad, or was it instead the product of the "great game" between the United States, Soviet Union, China, India, and Pakistan? Can we today forget this recent history and simply look at the subcontinent's dynamics through the lens of the Cold War binary? The Cold War superpowers possessed a deep-rooted ideological rivalry, but they had no disputed territory between them and no enduring history of armed conflict against each other. Can Cold War binary dynamics therefore apply to the India-Pakistan-China nuclear trio, which do have territorial disputes and have fought wars? For the reasons stated above, it would be a misplaced logic to apply the Cold War binary dynamics to the India-Pakistan-China triad.IndiaIndia's tryst with the atomic bomb is almost as old as the bomb itself. In 1944, Homi Bhabha submitted a report on nuclear energy, and a year later the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research was established. Early Indian leaders after independence understood the dual use of atomic energy. They established the Atomic Energy Act in April 1948 and later created the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in 1954. In 1956, India's Apsara was the first nuclear research reactor in Asia to be operationalized. At that stage, India could have opted to build its nuclear weapons program, but its leaders chose to profess nuclear disarmament, little realizing that the nuclear genie was already out of the bottle. …