Study on the Impact of Export and Import on Economic Growth in Iran
Study on the Impact of Export and Import on Economic Growth in Iran
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发表时间：
2012
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通讯作者：
M. Taghavi;M. Goudarzi;E. Masoudi;H. P. Gashti
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作者：
M. Taghavi;M. Goudarzi;E. Masoudi;H. P. Gashti
本文用VAR方法研究了1962 - 2011年伊朗进出口与经济增长之间的关系。强调了进出口变量在经济增长产出协整分析中的作用，检验了进出口与经济增长之间的直接长期关系、间接长期关系和脉冲响应函数。实证结果确实证实了所考虑的变量之间的长期关系。从长期来看，出口与经济增长之间存在着直接的正相关关系。进口与经济增长呈显著负相关，长期进口对经济增长具有负向影响。我们还看到，出口冲击对经济增长产生了积极影响；另一方面，进口误差项的冲击对经济增长的影响不大，因此进口冲击对经济增长没有积极的影响。
This paper investigated VAR method between import, export and economic growth in Iran over the period 19622011.The role of the import and export variables in the investigation of economic growth output cointegration analysis is emphasized, enabling one to test for the cases direct long run relationship, indirect long run relationship, and impulse, response function between export and import and economic growth. The empirical results did confirm a long run relationship between the variables considered. Based on results, export had direct and positive relationship with economic growth in long run. Also import had a significant and negative relationship with economic growth then import had negative effect on economic growth in long-term. We also saw a shock on the export has had a positive effect on economic growth; the other hand a shock on import error term had not much effect on economic growth so a shock on import could not positive effect on economic growth.