Forecasting the number of inpatients with schizophrenia
Forecasting the number of inpatients with schizophrenia
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1440-1819.2004.01302.x
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发表时间：
2004-10-01
影响因子：
11.9
通讯作者：
Tang, SW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Someya, T;Suzuki, Y;Tang, SW
在日本，关于减少精神科床位的讨论很多。对于有效的医疗保健规划，可靠的预测非常重要。本研究的目的是使用定量方法预测未来精神分裂症住院患者的数量。数据取自新泻县自1974年至2003年每年3月底进行的精神分裂症住院患者调查。对长期不同年龄段的精神分裂症住院患者人数进行精确的时间序列分析，以确定趋势。然后，这些过去的趋势被用来预测未来几年的住院人数。按年龄分层的每个住院患者组的上升和下降模式似乎在 10 年后被下一个较大年龄组重复。预计2013年和2023年住院精神分裂症患者人数将分别为2003年患者人数的78.5%和56.7%。到 2033 年，这一数字预计将下降至 2003 年的 41.0%。这项研究预测，未来几十年住院精神分裂症患者将大幅减少。政策的设计应反映这一趋势。
There has been much discussion in Japan regarding the reduction of psychiatric beds. For effective healthcare planning, reliable forecasting is important. The purpose of this study was to predict the number of future schizophrenic inpatients using quantitative methodology. Data was obtained from a survey of schizophrenic inpatients conducted annually at the end of March by the Niigata Prefecture from 1974 to 2003. The numbers of schizophrenic inpatients in different age groups over a long period of time were used in a precise time-series analysis to establish trends. Then these past trends were used to forecast inpatient numbers for future years. The pattern of ascents and declines of each inpatient group stratified by age appeared to be duplicated by the next older age group 10 years later. The numbers of inpatients with schizophrenia in 2013 and 2023 are projected to be 78.5% and 56.7% of the number of patients in 2003, respectively. By 2033, the number is forecast to decline to 41.0% of the number in 2003. This study forecasts that inpatients with schizophrenia will decrease substantially over the next several decades. Policy should be designed to reflect this trend.