Emissions from international shipping:: 1.: The last 50 years -: art. no. D17305
Emissions from international shipping:: 1.: The last 50 years -: art. no. D17305
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DOI：
10.1029/2004jd005619
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发表时间：
2005-09-15
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Lauer, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eyring, V;Köhler, HW;Lauer, A
远洋船舶向海洋边界层排放废气和颗粒物，对人为排放总量有重大贡献。我们提出了过去五十年国际航运的排放清单，用于具有详细对流层化学的全球模拟研究。该清单是一项自下而上的分析，使用了2001年底民用和军用船舶总数（包括辅助发动机）的燃料消耗和船队数量。利用船舶数量统计和平均发动机统计数据，计算了1950年至2001年间燃料质量、二氧化碳、氮氧化物和其他排放物的趋势估计值。我们对2001年燃料总消耗和全球排放的估计与之前基于活动的研究相似。然而，与早期研究相比，给出了非甲烷碳氢化合物（NMHCs）和颗粒物的详细分类，并明确计算了一氧化碳排放。我们的结果表明，2001年燃料消耗约为2.8亿吨，1950年为6450万吨。这相当于1950年187（5.4）太克二氧化碳（氮氧化物），2001年813（21.4）太克二氧化碳（氮氧化物）。从1970年到2001年，世界商船队的船舶数量迅速增加，燃料总消耗也相应增加。将燃料消耗估计值与历史船用燃料油统计数据进行了比较，并将我们的排放估计值与其他运输方式的排放预算相关联。全球船舶排放根据2000年AMVER（自动互助船舶救援系统）数据集的全球船舶交通密度进行地理分布。这项工作还为在本研究的第二部分基于平均船队排放指数制定未来排放情景奠定了基础。
Seagoing ships emit exhaust gases and particles into the marine boundary layer and significantly contribute to the total budget of anthropogenic emissions. We present an emission inventory for international shipping for the past five decades to be used in global modeling studies with detailed tropospheric chemistry. The inventory is a bottom-up analysis using fuel consumption and fleet numbers for the total civilian and military fleet including auxiliary engines at the end of 2001. Trend estimates for fuel mass, CO2, NOx, and other emissions for the time between 1950 and 2001 have been calculated using ship number statistics and average engine statistics. Our estimate for total fuel consumption and global emissions for the year 2001 is similar to previous activity-based studies. However, compared to earlier studies, a detailed speciation of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and particulate matter is given, and carbon monoxide emissions are calculated explicitly. Our results suggest a fuel consumption of approximately 280 million metric tons (Mt) for the year 2001 and 64.5 Mt in 1950. This corresponds to 187 (5.4) Tg CO2 (NOx) in 1950, and 813 (21.4) Tg CO2 (NOx) in 2001. From 1970 to 2001 the world-merchant fleet increased rapidly in terms of ship numbers, with a corresponding increase in total fuel consumption. The fuel consumption estimates are compared against historical marine bunker fuel statistics, and our emission estimates are related to emission budgets of other transport modes. Global ship emissions are distributed geographically according to global vessel traffic densities of the AMVER (Automated Mutual-assistance Vessel Rescue system) data set for the year 2000. This work also sets the basis to develop future emission scenarios based on average-fleet emission indices in part 2 of this study.