The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50762
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发表时间：
2013-09-16
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Yoon, Jin-Ho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones, Andy;Haywood, Jim M.;Yoon, Jin-Ho
我们已经研究了气候的变化，这是由于地球工程的突然终止后，50年来抵消了每年增加1%的CO2浓度减少太阳辐射，模拟11个不同的气候模型在实验G2的地球工程模型比较项目。这些模型一致认为，终止后全球平均温度迅速上升，同时全球平均降水率增加，海冰覆盖面积减少。地球工程终止对全球平均植物净初级生产力变化率的影响没有一致意见。对于终止后温度变化的地理分布有相当程度的共识，高纬度地区和陆地升温较快。关于北极海冰减少的分布情况也有相当多的一致意见，但关于南极海冰减少的分布情况就不那么一致了。关于降水量和净初级生产力的变化模式，人们的一致意见要少得多，在高纬度地区，人们的一致意见程度更高。
We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentrations by a reduction of solar radiation, as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid increase in global-mean temperature following termination accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and decreases in sea-ice cover. There is no agreement on the impact of geoengineering termination on the rate of change of global-mean plant net primary productivity. There is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of temperature change following termination, with faster warming at high latitudes and over land. There is also considerable agreement regarding the distribution of reductions in Arctic sea-ice, but less so for the Antarctic. There is much less agreement regarding the patterns of change in precipitation and net primary productivity, with a greater degree of consensus at higher latitudes.