A scenario-incorporating analysis of the propagation of uncertainty to flash flood simulations
A scenario-incorporating analysis of the propagation of uncertainty to flash flood simulations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.06.045
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发表时间：
2012-08
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
F. Quintero;D. Sempere‐Torres;M. Berenguer;E. Baltas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Quintero;D. Sempere‐Torres;M. Berenguer;E. Baltas
本研究提出一种方法来分析传播的不确定性所产生的雷达降雨和模型参数估计的流量模拟山洪建模。为此，一个集成的方法，描述了雷达降雨估计的误差和一种新的方法，认为在模型参数估计的季节性和变化的集水条件已经实施。该方法分析了径流模拟的不确定性及其相互作用的每个来源的单独影响。该方法已被应用在贝塞斯达河流域，加泰罗尼亚（西班牙）的流域面积为1020平方公里。结果表明，参数估计的不确定性的影响产生一个较小的传播模式实现比降雨估计的不确定性所造成的影响。
This study proposes a methodology to analyze the propagation of uncertainty arising from radar rainfall and model parameter estimation to the flow simulations obtained from flash flood modeling. For this purpose an ensemble approach that describes the error from radar rainfall estimation and a novel approach that considers the seasonality and variability of catchment conditions in the estimation of model parameters have been implemented. The methodology analyzes the separate effect of each source of uncertainty and their interaction on runoff simulations. The methodology has been applied in the Besòs river basin, Catalonia (Spain) with a drainage area of 1020km2. The results show that the effect of parameter estimation uncertainty produces a smaller spread in the model realizations than the effect caused by the uncertainty in rainfall estimation.