Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales
Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3
复制
发表时间：
2021-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Veland, Siri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Xueke;Stephenson, Scott R.;Veland, Siri
预计到本世纪中叶，北极将出现季节性无冰，这引发了人们对北极潜在机遇和风险的经济和地缘政治兴趣。但是，海冰在时间尺度上的巨大变化表明，海洋可达性预测的未来不确定，特别是在运营（< 2年）和基础设施（bbb50年）的时间跨度内，这对决策者规划船舶路线、应急管理、港口投资等方面有重大影响。在这里，我们使用三种适用于CMIP6情景的海洋可达性方案来量化北极航运季节在这些与决策相关的时间尺度上的可变性和不确定性。我们比较了气候模型和可达性方案的路线预测，表明方法的选择显著影响决策的重要信息。我们发现航行时间的高变异性和不确定性，特别是在两个时间尺度上的关键“肩”季节。这将导致未来几十年的风险增加，特别是在未来25年的航运季结束时，短期内的不确定性很高。航行风险预计从2045年开始下降。考虑到海冰变化、模拟质量和可达性算法的知识，可以做出更好的投资决策，并最大限度地减少由于延迟和取消航行而导致的不可预见的成本。在这里，我们开发并展示了一个框架，用于开发更及时和重要的信息，以指导与业务和基础设施相关的北极航运决策，因为气候预测在空间和物理上得到了更好的解决。
The expectation of a seasonally ice-free Arctic expected by mid-century has sparked economic and geopolitical interest in potential Arctic opportunities and risks. But substantial sea ice variability across timescales suggests an uncertain future for forecasts of marine accessibility, especially over operational (< 2 years) and infrastructural (> 5 years) time spans that significantly influence decision-makers planning ship routing, emergency management, port investment, and more. Here, we use three marine accessibility schemes applied to CMIP6 scenarios to quantify Arctic shipping season variability and uncertainty across these decision-relevant timescales. We compare route projections across climate models and accessibility schemes to show that the choice of methodology significantly affects information important for decision-making. We find high variability and uncertainty in voyage time notably in the critical "shoulder" seasons on both timescales. This leads to increased risk over the next several decades, with high short-term uncertainty particularly at the end of the shipping season for the next 25 years. Navigation risk is expected to decline from 2045 onward. Knowledge that accounts for sea ice variability, simulation quality, and accessibility algorithm allows for better investment decisions and the minimization of unforeseen costs due to delayed and canceled voyages. Here we develop and demonstrate a framework for developing more timely and salient information to guide decisions on Arctic shipping relevant to both operational and infrastructural horizons as climate projections become spatially and physically better resolved.