Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders.
Developing socio-ecological scenarios: A participatory process for engaging stakeholders.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150512
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Allan;E. Barbour;R. Nicholls;C. Hutton;M. Lim;M. Salehin;Md. Munsur Rahman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Allan;E. Barbour;R. Nicholls;C. Hutton;M. Lim;M. Salehin;Md. Munsur Rahman
三角洲正在经历深刻的人口、经济和土地利用变化，以及人类引起的流域和气候变化。孟加拉国通过多种气候风险体现了这些困难，包括下沉/海平面上升、气温上升和降水模式的变化，以及恒河和雅鲁藏布江流域管理的变化。不断增长的人口和经济推动了许多更多的地方性变化，而农村人口密集和贫困仍然很严重。在这种情况下，确定适当的政策和规划对策是极其困难的。作为对孟加拉国沿海生态系统服务和生计的综合评估的一部分，本文件采用参与式情景发展进程，纳入多个尺度和部门的社会经济和生物物理因素。这项分析不是简单地缩小全球视角，而是由一个庞大而多样的利益攸关方团体推动的，他们在评估的设计、实施和应用过程中，在四年的时间里与研究人员会面。有四个主要阶段：(A)建立分析的元框架；(B)制定关键趋势的定性设想；(C)将这些设想转化为综合评估模型分析的量化形式；(D)审查模型结果，提出新的利益攸关方见解(例如，优先的适应和政策回应)和问题。可以重复步骤D，从而导致迭代学习循环，并且该过程可能正在进行。利益攸关方参与的强有力和有条理的进程使当地对各种情景和更广泛的进程拥有很强的自主权。按照同样的四阶段方法，这一过程可以推广应用于整个社会生态系统。它需要与利益攸关方持续接触，因此需要与长期研究过程相联系。然而，它有助于为规划提供更可信的基础，特别是在有多种相互作用的因素的情况下。
Deltas are experiencing profound demographic, economic and land use changes and human-induced catchment and climate change. Bangladesh exemplifies these difficulties through multiple climate risks including subsidence/sea-level rise, temperature rise, and changing precipitation patterns, as well as changing management of the Ganges and Brahmaputra catchments. There is a growing population and economy driving numerous more local changes, while dense rural population and poverty remain significant. Identifying appropriate policy and planning responses is extremely difficult in these circumstances. This paper adopts a participatory scenario development process incorporating both socio-economic and biophysical elements across multiple scales and sectors as part of an integrated assessment of ecosystem services and livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh. Rather than simply downscale global perspectives, the analysis was driven by a large and diverse stakeholder group who met with the researchers over four years as the assessment was designed, implemented and applied. There were four main stages: (A) establish meta-framework for the analysis; (B) develop qualitative scenarios of key trends; (C) translate these scenarios into quantitative form for the integrated assessment model analysis; and (D) a review of the model results, which raises new stakeholder insights (e.g., preferred adaptation and policy responses) and questions. Step D can be repeated leading to an iterative learning loop cycle, and the process can potentially be ongoing. The strong and structured process of stakeholder engagement gave strong local ownership of the scenarios and the wider process. This process can be generalised for widespread application across socio-ecological systems following the same four-stage approach. It demands sustained engagement with stakeholders and hence needs to be linked to a long-term research process. However, it facilitates a more credible foundation for planning especially where there are multiple interacting factors.