Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts
Effect of reservoir zones and hedging factor dynamism on reservoir adaptive capacity for climate change impacts
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DOI：
10.5194/piahs-379-21-2018
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发表时间：
2018-06
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Adeloye;B. Soundharajan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Adeloye;B. Soundharajan
抽象的。当基于可用水储存区域时，对冲传统上使用单一对冲区域和恒定的配给比例来限制干旱期间的供应。考虑到水库流入的通常季节性，对冲也可能具有多个对冲区域和随时间变化的配给比例，但很少有研究解决这一问题，特别是与适应预计的气候变化有关的研究。本研究使用印度喜马偕尔邦 Pong 水库的数据开发并测试了各种配置的遗传算法 (GA) 优化的基于区域的运行策略。结果表明，套期保值确实降低了脆弱性，从没有套期保值时的 ≥ 60% 下降到单阶段套期保值时的 25% 以下。更复杂的对冲政策，例如两阶段和/或随时间变化的配给比率仅对性能产生边际改善。这一切都表明，水对冲政策不必过于复杂，就能有效抵消因水资源短缺而造成的水库脆弱性。预计的气候变化。
Abstract. When based on the zones of available water in storage, hedging has traditionally used a single hedged zone and a constant rationing ratio for constraining supply during droughts. Given the usual seasonality of reservoir inflows, it is also possible that hedging could feature multiple hedged zones and temporally varying rationing ratios but very few studies addressing this have been reported especially in relation to adaptation to projected climate change. This study developed and tested Genetic Algorithms (GA) optimised zone-based operating policies of various configurations using data for the Pong reservoir, Himachal Pradesh, India. The results show that hedging does lessen vulnerability, which dropped from ≥ 60 % without hedging to below 25 % with the single stage hedging. More complex hedging policies, e.g. two stage and/or temporally varying rationing ratios only produced marginal improvements in performance. All this shows that water hedging policies do not have to be overly complex to effectively offset reservoir vulnerability caused by water shortage resulting from e.g. projected climate change.