The variations of dry spells in marseilles from 1865 to 1984
The variations of dry spells in marseilles from 1865 to 1984
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1865年至1984年马赛干旱期的变化
DOI：
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Douguédroit
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Douguédroit
旱季的研究比月总降雨量或平均降雨量更好地描述了旱季的结构。旱季的特点是所有旱季和长旱季(≥30天)的平均长度，以及它们在19个重叠的30年系列中的持续性。一个基于移动的负二项分布的模型，它很好地拟合了观测到的干旱周期频率的大部分月分布，允许我们计算≥n天的干旱周期发生的概率。
The study of dry spells gives a better characterization of the structure of a dry season than the monthly totals or means of rainfall. The dry season is characterized by the mean lengths of all dry spells and of the long dry spells (≥ 30 days), and by their persistence during 19 overlapping 30-years series. A model based on shifted negative binomial distributions which fits well most of the monthly distributions of the frequency of the observed dry spells allows us to compute the probability of occurrence of a dry spell ≥ n days.