Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean
Uncertain recovery of the North Atlantic right whale in a changing ocean
复制标题
海洋变化中北大西洋露脊鲸的恢复存在不确定性
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13929
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
C. Greene
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Meyer‐Gutbrod;C. Greene
人类活动已将许多濒危物种的种群置于危险之中，缓解努力通常侧重于减少人为死亡来源。然而，如果没有认识到环境因素在调节出生率和死亡率方面的额外作用，可能会导致错误的人口统计分析和结论。北大西洋露脊鲸种群目前是保护工作的重点，旨在降低与船只撞击和渔具缠绕有关的死亡率。自1980年以来对种群的持续监测显示，与气候有关的猎物可获得性变化在种群的恢复中发挥了重要作用。在人口增长方面观察到的相当大的年代际差异，与连接缅因湾生态系统的遥远的北极和北大西洋海洋过程不谋而合。在这里，我们建立捕获-重新捕获模型来量化猎物可获得性对露脊鲸种群数量转移概率的作用，并使用相应的人口模型来预测下个世纪的种群增长率。与之前的预测相反，只要猎物可获得性和死亡率保持在1980-2012年期间观察到的范围内，露脊鲸的数量预计将在未来恢复。然而，最近的事件表明，露脊鲸猎物的活动范围向北转移，可能导致猎物可获得性降低和/或露脊鲸栖息地扩大到不受保护的水域。鲸鱼死亡数量的年度增长与2017年夏季大规模死亡事件期间观察到的数量相当，即使在正常可获得猎物的条件下，也可能导致灭绝的下降。这项研究强调了在评估濒危海洋物种养护管理计划的效力时，了解观察到的种群变化的海洋学背景的重要性。
Human activities have placed populations of many endangered species at risk and mitigation efforts typically focus on reducing anthropogenic sources of mortality. However, failing to recognize the additional role of environmental factors in regulating birth and mortality rates can lead to erroneous demographic analyses and conclusions. The North Atlantic right whale population is currently the focus of conservation efforts aimed at reducing mortality rates associated with ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear. Consistent monitoring of the population since 1980 has revealed evidence that climate‐associated changes in prey availability have played an important role in the population's recovery. The considerable interdecadal differences observed in population growth coincide with remote Arctic and North Atlantic oceanographic processes that link to the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Here, we build capture‐recapture models to quantify the role of prey availability on right whale demographic transitional probabilities and use a corresponding demographic model to project population growth rates into the next century. Contrary to previous predictions, the right whale population is projected to recover in the future as long as prey availability and mortality rates remain within the ranges observed during 1980–2012. However, recent events indicate a northward range shift in right whale prey, potentially resulting in decreased prey availability and/or an expansion of right whale habitat into unprotected waters. An annual increase in the number of whale deaths comparable to that observed during the summer 2017 mass mortality event may cause a decline to extinction even under conditions of normal prey availability. This study highlights the importance of understanding the oceanographic context for observed population changes when evaluating the efficacy of conservation management plans for endangered marine species.