CGE modeling with disaggregated pollution treatment sectors for assessing China's environmental tax policies
CGE modeling with disaggregated pollution treatment sectors for assessing China's environmental tax policies
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143264
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发表时间：
2021-01-14
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Masui, Toshihiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Gen;Zhang, Runsen;Masui, Toshihiko
本研究构建了一个可计算的一般均衡模型来评估中国最新的环境税收政策。大多数环境CGE模型仅通过单位部门产出的污染系数将污染物排放与标准CGE模型联系起来，减排过程不包括在生产结构中。我们为固体废物管理、废水管理和废气管理建立了单独的污染处理部门，以描述污染处理流程并确定政策如何影响生产活动。我们从中国环境扩展投入产出数据集中汇编了18种污染物的卫星账户，涵盖主要气体、水和固体污染物，并将电力部门分为六种不同的生产技术：水电、煤电、气电、石油电、核能和可再生能源。从模拟结果中我们得出了两个主要结论。首先，所审查的环境政策可以帮助减少大多数类型污染物的排放，但也会对GDP产生负面影响。到2030年，低环境税情景(Lowet)的GDP损失将为0.03%，高环境税情景(Highet)为0.06%，低环境税低碳税情景(LowETC)为0.16%，高环境税高碳税情景(HighETC)为0.34%。二氧化硫排放量分别减少17.4%、21.0%、19.3%和24.5%，二氧化碳排放量分别减少0.9%、1.7%、5.8%和11.0%。其次，尽管经济影响的变化很小，但如果在CGE模型中将污染治理部门分解，则环境税政策在污染治理中的有效性被低估了。以二氧化硫为例。在HighETC情景中分解污染处理部门后，计算的SO2减少量将从8.95%增加到24.46%。(C)2020爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
This research involved constructing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for assessing China's latest environmental tax policies. Most environmental CGE models link pollutant emissions to the standard CGE model only by pollution coefficients per unit of sectoral output, and the emission reduction process is not included within production structures. We constructed separate pollution treatment sectors for solid waste management, wastewater management, and waste gas management to describe the pollution treatment processes and identify how policies affect production activities. We compiled the satellite accounts of 18 pollutants from the China Environmentally Extended Input-Output (CEEIO) dataset covering primary gas, water, and solid pollutants and disaggregated the electricity sector into six different production technologies: hydroelectricity, coal power, gas electricity, oil electricity, nuclear power, and renewable energies. We drew two primary conclusions from the simulation results. First, the environmental policies examined could help reduce the emissions of most kinds of pollutants, but also negatively affect GDP. GDP loss by 2030 would be 0.03% in the low environmental tax scenario (LowET), 0.06% in the high environmental tax scenario (HighET), 0.16% in the low environmental tax and low carbon tax scenario (LowETC), and 0.34% in the high environmental tax and high carbon tax scenario (HighETC). SO2 emissions would decrease by 17.4%, 21.0%, 19.3% and 24.5%, respectively, and CO2 emissions would reduce by 0.9%, 1.7%, 5.8% and 11.0%. Second, despite the minor changes in the economic impacts, the effectiveness in pollution treatment of environmental tax policies is underestimated if the pollution treatment sectors are disaggregated in the CGE model. Take the SO2 for an example. The calculated SO2 reductions will increase from 8.95% to 24.46% after disaggregating the pollution treatment sectors in HighETC scenarios. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.