Hazard warning: model misuse ahead
Hazard warning: model misuse ahead
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DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fst215
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Nash, Richard D. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dickey-Collas, Mark;Payne, Mark R.;Nash, Richard D. M.
探索了建模方法在海洋科学，特别是渔业科学中的使用。我们强调，用于分析的模型的选择应考虑所提出的问题或管理问题的背景。我们研究了基于 Richard Levins 1966 年工作的模型分类方案，该方案表明模型只能实现三个理想模型属性中的两个：真实性、精确性和通用性。因此，模型创建需要权衡其中一个属性以支持其他两个属性：然而，这通常与最终用户（即经理或政策开发人员）的愿望相冲突。属性的组合产生的模型被认为具有经验、机械或分析特征，但不是它们的组合。在渔业科学中，可以找到许多具有这些特征的模型的例子。然而，我们建议在使用模型或技术时常常不考虑其局限性，例如在没有普遍性的情况下投影到未知空间，或者拟合经验模型并推断因果关系。我们建议将建模中的权衡和限制的想法视为评估模型在管理决策知识背景下的效用的重要第一步。
The use of modelling approaches in marine science, and in particular fisheries science, is explored. We highlight that the choice of model used for an analysis should account for the question being posed or the context of the management problem. We examine a model-classification scheme based on Richard Levins' 1966 work suggesting that models can only achieve two of three desirable model attributes: realism, precision, and generality. Model creation, therefore, requires trading-off of one of these attributes in favour of the other two: however, this is often in conflict with the desires of end-users (i.e. mangers or policy developers). The combination of attributes leads to models that are considered to have empirical, mechanistic, or analytical characteristics, but not a combination of them. In fisheries science, many examples can be found of models with these characteristics. However, we suggest that models or techniques are often employed without consideration of their limitations, such as projecting into unknown space without generalism, or fitting empirical models and inferring causality. We suggest that the idea of trade-offs and limitations in modelling be considered as an essential first step in assessing the utility of a model in the context of knowledge for decision-making in management.