Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds
Hurricane-Induced Rainfall is a Stronger Predictor of Tropical Forest Damage in Puerto Rico Than Maximum Wind Speeds
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-61164-2
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发表时间：
2020-03-09
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Uriarte, Maria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hall, Jazlynn;Muscarella, Robert;Uriarte, Maria
在气候变暖的情况下，预计气旋风暴强度会增加，这将对森林产生深远影响，有可能使这些生态系统从碳汇变为碳源。预测风暴对这些生态系统的影响需要考虑与风暴气象学、景观结构和森林属性相关的风险因素。在这里，我们评估与飓风玛丽亚和伊尔玛在波多黎各森林造成的损害严重程度相关的风险因素。使用现场和遥感数据，森林地上生物量（AGB）损失的风暴估计为10.44（+/- 2.33）Tg，约。全岛23%的飓风前森林AGB。与最大风速相比，与风暴有关的降雨是森林破坏的一个更强的预测因子。土壤蓄水能力也是一个重要的风险因素，证实了降雨对森林损害的影响。预计北大西洋飓风相关降雨量将增加20%，这突出表明需要考虑这种变化以及高速风将如何影响陆地生态系统。
Projected increases in cyclonic storm intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on forests, potentially changing these ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Forecasting storm impacts on these ecosystems requires consideration of risk factors associated with storm meteorology, landscape structure, and forest attributes. Here we evaluate risk factors associated with damage severity caused by Hurricanes Maria and Irma across Puerto Rican forests. Using field and remote sensing data, total forest aboveground biomass (AGB) lost to the storms was estimated at 10.44 (+/- 2.33) Tg, ca. 23% of island-wide pre-hurricane forest AGB. Storm-related rainfall was a stronger predictor of forest damage than maximum wind speeds. Soil water storage capacity was also an important risk factor, corroborating the influence of rainfall on forest damage. Expected increases of 20% in hurricane-associated rainfall in the North Atlantic highlight the need to consider how such shifts, together with high speed winds, will affect terrestrial ecosystems.