Risk of poor development in young children in low-income and middle-income countries: an estimation and analysis at the global, regional, and country level.
Risk of poor development in young children in low-income and middle-income countries: an estimation and analysis at the global, regional, and country level.
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DOI：
10.1016/s2214-109x(16)30266-2
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发表时间：
2016-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Richter LM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lu C;Black MM;Richter LM
2007年发表在《柳叶刀》上的一项研究估计，2004年约有2.19亿5岁以下儿童发育迟缓或处于极端贫困之中。我们使用改进的数据和方法更新了2004年的估计数，并生成了2010年的估计数。我们根据世卫组织提出的2006年生长标准和世界银行的贫困比率，使用国家一级5岁以下儿童发育迟缓的患病率，估计2004年和2010年141个低收入和中等收入国家中发育迟缓或生活在极端贫困中的儿童。为了避免对同一儿童进行两次计算，我们将同时面临发育迟缓和极端贫困的儿童排除在极端贫困儿童之外。为了检查估计的稳健性，我们还使用了中度贫困措施。2007年的研究低估了处于发育不良风险中的儿童。在低收入和中等收入国家，受这两种风险因素影响的儿童估计人数从2.791亿人减少到2.791亿人。（95%可信区间2.50亿-3.07亿），2004年为2.49亿（2.09亿-2.92亿）;风险儿童的患病率从51%（95% CI 46-56）降至43%（36-51）。所有收入群体和地区都出现了下降，南亚的下降幅度最大。撒哈拉以南非洲在这两年的流行率最高。这些研究结果对贫困措施的变化是可靠的。2004年至2010年期间，在减少发育迟缓或贫困儿童人数方面取得了进展，但这仍然不够。迫切需要扩大针对最脆弱儿童的有效干预措施。美国国立卫生研究院、比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金会、希尔顿基金会和世卫组织。
A 2007 study published in The Lancet estimated that approximately 219 million children aged younger than 5 years were exposed to stunting or extreme poverty in 2004. We updated the 2004 estimates with the use of improved data and methods and generated estimates for 2010. We used country-level prevalence of stunting in children younger than 5 years based on the 2006 Growth Standards proposed by WHO and poverty ratios from the World Bank to estimate children who were either stunted or lived in extreme poverty for 141 low-income and middle-income countries in 2004 and 2010. To avoid counting the same children twice, we excluded children jointly exposed to stunting and extreme poverty from children living in extreme poverty. To examine the robustness of estimates, we also used moderate poverty measures. The 2007 study underestimated children at risk of poor development. The estimated number of children exposed to the two risk factors in low-income and middle-income countries decreased from 279·1 million (95% CI 250·4 million–307·4 million) in 2004 to 249·4 million (209·3 million–292·6 million) in 2010; prevalence of children at risk fell from 51% (95% CI 46–56) to 43% (36–51). The decline occurred in all income groups and regions with south Asia experiencing the largest drop. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence in both years. These findings were robust to variations in poverty measures. Progress has been made in reducing the number of children exposed to stunting or poverty between 2004 and 2010, but this is still not enough. Scaling up of effective interventions targeting the most vulnerable children is urgently needed. National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Hilton Foundation, and WHO.