Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management
Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management
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未来可实现的条件作为指导森林保护和管理的框架
DOI：
10.1016/j.foreco.2015.10.009
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
A. Shearer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Golladay;K. Martin;J. Vose;D. Wear;A. Covich;R. Hobbs;K. Klepzig;G. Likens;R. Naiman;A. Shearer
我们认为，考虑到21世纪社会经济和生物物理变化的预测规模，传统的森林保护和管理方法将是不够的。迫切需要新的方法，重点是预测和指导生态系统对变化的反应，以确保森林生态系统服务对子孙后代的全部价值。这些方法承认，变化是不可避免的，有时是不可逆转的，生态系统服务的维持部分取决于新的生态系统，即过去没有类似物的物种组合。我们建议使用基于风险的方法在景观或区域尺度上评估生态反应，将不确定性纳入森林管理工作，并根据可实现的未来条件（AFC）制定后续管理目标。在景观或区域尺度上定义的afc结合了生态系统管理的进步，包括适应方法、恢复力和人类世背景下的预期未来条件。ACFs本身具有前瞻性，包括缓解和适应备选方案，以应对预测的未来生物物理、社会经济和政策条件的情景，这些条件会分散风险并对不确定性提供多样化的应对措施。科学-管理-公共伙伴关系的参与对于我们基于风险确定afc的方法至关重要。强有力的森林管理行动监测方案对于解决物种分布和生态系统过程的不确定性也至关重要。制定区域反应指标对于评价管理战略的成果也至关重要。我们的概念框架为森林管理的afc提供了一个起点，并以美国东南部的火灾和水管理为例加以说明。我们的模型是自适应的，随着新信息的出现和社会生态动态的变化，它结合了评估和修改。它扩展了生态系统管理和最佳管理实践的既定原则，并纳入了未来条件的设想。它还突出了现有体制结构在确定和实现非洲发展目标方面的潜在限制。在迅速变化和突然、不可预见的过渡的不确定的未来，必须调整管理办法，有些行动将会失败。然而，越来越明显的是，最大的风险是继续实施与我们当前对新未来的理解不一致的战略。
We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations. These approaches acknowledge that change is inevitable and sometimes irreversible, and that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in part on novel ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in the past. We propose that ecological responses be evaluated at landscape or regional scales using risk-based approaches to incorporate uncertainty into forest management efforts with subsequent goals for management based on Achievable Future Conditions (AFC). AFCs defined at a landscape or regional scale incorporate advancements in ecosystem management, including adaptive approaches, resilience, and desired future conditions into the context of the Anthropocene. Inherently forward looking, ACFs encompass mitigation and adaptation options to respond to scenarios of projected future biophysical, social-economic, and policy conditions which distribute risk and provide diversity of response to uncertainty. The engagement of science-management-public partnerships is critical to our risk-based approach for defining AFCs. Robust monitoring programs of forest management actions are also crucial to address uncertainty regarding species distributions and ecosystem processes. Development of regional indicators of response will also be essential to evaluate outcomes of management strategies. Our conceptual framework provides a starting point to move toward AFCs for forest management, illustrated with examples from fire and water management in the Southeastern United States. Our model is adaptive, incorporating evaluation and modification as new information becomes available and as social–ecological dynamics change. It expands on established principles of ecosystem management and best management practices (BMPs) and incorporates scenarios of future conditions. It also highlights the potential limits of existing institutional structures for defining AFCs and achieving them. In an uncertain future of rapid change and abrupt, unforeseen transitions, adjustments in management approaches will be necessary and some actions will fail. However, it is increasingly evident that the greatest risk is posed by continuing to implement strategies inconsistent with current understanding of our novel future.