What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis
What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis
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DOI：
10.1093/reep/rew013
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发表时间：
2017-12-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Ferretti-Gallon, Kalifi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Busch, Jonah;Ferretti-Gallon, Kalifi
本文基于1996年至2013年发表在同行评审学术期刊上的121项空间明确的森林砍伐计量经济学研究的综合数据库，对推动森林砍伐的因素和阻止森林砍伐的因素进行了荟萃分析。我们发现，在农业经济回报较高的地方，森林更有可能被砍伐，这是因为气候和地形条件更有利，或者砍伐森林和将产品运输到市场的成本更低。木材活动、土地保有权保障、社区森林管理和社区人口统计并不总是与较高或较低的森林砍伐率相关。人口总是与更多的森林砍伐有关，而贫穷总是与更少的森林砍伐有关。然而，在这两种情况下，由于内生性，很难推断出因果关系。基于元分析的结果，我们提出了有希望的方法来阻止森林砍伐，包括减少道路网络扩展到偏远的森林地区，在森林面临更大威胁的地区针对保护区，并隔离森林边境对农产品的需求。有初步证据表明，执行森林保护法、支持土著人民继续进行森林管理以及为生态系统服务付费也可能阻止砍伐森林。
This article presents a meta-analysis of what drives deforestation and what stops it, based on a comprehensive database of 121 spatially explicit econometric studies of deforestation published in peer-reviewed academic journals from 1996 to 2013. We found that forests are more likely to be cleared in locations where the economic returns to agriculture are higher, due to either more favorable climatologic and topographic conditions or lower costs of clearing forests and transporting products to markets. Timber activity, land tenure security, community forest management, and community demographics are not consistently associated with either higher or lower deforestation. Population is consistently associated with greater deforestation and poverty is consistently associated with lower deforestation. However, in both cases it is difficult to infer a causal link because of endogeneity. Based on the results of the meta-analysis, we suggest promising approaches for stopping deforestation, including reducing the expansion of road networks into remote forested areas, targeting protected areas in regions where forests face a greater threat, and insulating the forest frontier from the demand for agricultural commodities. There is preliminary evidence that enforcing forest protection laws, supporting continued forest management by indigenous peoples, and payments for ecosystem services (PES) may also stop deforestation.