Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
Using Big Data and Algorithms to Determine the Effect of Geographically Targeted Advertising on Vote Intention: Evidence From the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election
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使用大数据和算法确定地理定向广告对投票意向的影响：来自 2012 年美国总统选举的证据
DOI：
10.1080/10584609.2018.1467985
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
7.5
通讯作者：
Kenneth C. Wilbur
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tobias Konitzer;David M. Rothschild;Shawndra Hill;Kenneth C. Wilbur
我们开发了一个新的概念化的政治广告效果，通过看在总统竞选期间的热边际广告美元的效果。我们认为，与其他研究调查政治广告的影响，我们的方法更容易捕捉自然环境中，政治广告在总统竞选期间遇到的。我们关注的是选民在总统选举前几周在摇摆州面临的大量政治广告，并认为在这种关键情况下，我们是否应该期望广告影响投票意向，这是一个先验不清楚的。我们使用2012年竞选活动的大量数据实证验证了这一假设：全国各地媒体市场的每日民意调查，全国所有注册选民的详细数据，按市场和确切播出时间划分的所有电视广告，以及整个Twitter语料库。我们发现，无论是广告支出的整体增长，还是支出的党派不平衡，都没有扩大候选人的选民范围。事实上，总指定市场区（DMA）水平的支出显着缓和支出优势和优势之间的负相关关系，在投票意向，这表明在竞选后期的额外支出的回飞效应。最后，我们讨论了我们的研究结果对未来研究的影响，并强调研究跟踪广告效果的重要性。
We develop a new conceptualization of political advertising effects by looking at the effect of the marginal advertising dollar during the heat of presidential campaigns. We argue that in contrast to other studies investigating effects of political ads, our approach is more apt to capture the natural environment in which political ads are encountered during a presidential campaign. We focus on the intense inundation of political ads voters are confronted with in swing states in the weeks leading up to the presidential election, and argue that it is unclear a priori whether we should expect advertising to affect vote intention in that critical circumstance. We empirically validate this hypothesis using a trove of data from the 2012 campaign: daily polling in media markets around the country, detailed data on all registered voters in the country, all TV advertisements by market and exact airtime, and the entire Twitter corpus. We find that neither overall increases in advertising spending nor partisan imbalances in spending expanded the candidates’ electorate. In fact, total Designated Market Area (DMA)-level spending significantly moderates a negative relationship between spending advantages and advantages in vote intention, suggesting a boomerang effect of additional spending late in the campaign. In closing, we discuss the ramifications of our findings for future research, and stress the importance of research tracking advertising effects.