California’s Cap-and-Trade Program and Emission Leakage in the Western Interconnection: Comparing Econometric and Partial Equilibrium Model Estimates
California’s Cap-and-Trade Program and Emission Leakage in the Western Interconnection: Comparing Econometric and Partial Equilibrium Model Estimates
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DOI：
10.1086/726053
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发表时间：
2023-05
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Chiara Lo Prete;A. Tyagi;Qingyu Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chiara Lo Prete;A. Tyagi;Qingyu Xu
我们比较了加州的AB 32限额与交易计划的影响，在电力部门泄漏使用两种方法：一个基于模拟的部分均衡模型，占政策实施的细节，并使用市场数据和计量经济学模型参数化应用准实验设计匹配和强大的推理方法，不需要平行的趋势，以保持准确。根据发电量的估计变化，我们推断2013年和2016年的二氧化碳排放泄漏预测。比较使我们能够识别驱动模拟结果的关键假设，并在一个复杂的政策设置中对实证结果进行基准测试，在这个政策设置中，识别的威胁破坏了统计推断的尝试。在研究期间，我们发现了重大的泄漏潜在的事前和经验证据，是一致的一些资源洗牌事后。限制电力进口商索取默认排放系数的能力可能会降低泄漏风险。
We compare the effects of California’s AB 32 cap-and-trade program on leakage in the electricity sector using two methods: a simulation-based partial equilibrium model that accounts for details of policy implementation and is parameterized using market data and an econometric model applying a quasi-experimental design with matching and a robust inference method that does not require parallel trends to hold exactly. Based on the estimated shifts in electricity generation, we infer CO2 emission leakage predictions in 2013 and 2016. The comparison allows us to identify critical assumptions driving the simulation results and to benchmark the empirical results in a complex policy setting where threats to identification undermine attempts at statistical inference. Over the study period, we find significant leakage potential ex ante and empirical evidence that is consistent with some resource shuffling ex post. Limiting the ability of electricity importers to claim the default emission factor may reduce leakage risks.