County Jail Incarceration Rates and County Mortality Rates in the United States, 1987-2016
County Jail Incarceration Rates and County Mortality Rates in the United States, 1987-2016
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2019.305413
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Prins, Seth J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kajeepeta, Sandhya;Rutherford, Caroline G.;Prins, Seth J.
目标.评估美国县监狱监禁率变化与随后县死亡率之间的关系。我们分析了1987年至2016年1884个县司法统计局的县监狱监禁率和国家生命统计系统的死亡率。我们拟合了一年滞后的准泊松双向固定效应模型，控制了未测量的稳定县特征，并测量了随时间变化的混杂因素，包括县贫困和犯罪率。县内监狱监禁率从第一四分位数增加到第二四分位数与死亡率增加2.5%相关，调整混杂因素（风险比[RR] = 1.03; 95%置信区间[CI] = 1.02，1.03）。这种相关性遵循剂量-反应关系，并且在15至34岁的患者中死亡率更强（RR = 1.07; 95%CI = 1.06，1.09）。在调整重要混杂因素后，县内监狱监禁率的增加与随后死亡率的增加相关。我们的研究结果增加了越来越多的关于大规模监禁危害的经验证据。刑事司法改革和解除监禁运动可以在制定结束大规模监禁的战略时利用这些发现。
Objectives. To evaluate the relationship between changes in county jail incarceration rates and subsequent county mortality rates across the United States.Methods. We analyzed county jail incarceration rates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics from 1987 to 2016 for 1884 counties and mortality rates from the National Vital Statistics System. We fit 1-year-lagged quasi-Poisson 2-way fixed-effects models, controlling for unmeasured stable county characteristics, and measured time-varying confounders, including county poverty and crime rates.Results. A within-county increase in jail incarceration rates from the first to second quartile was associated with a 2.5% increase in mortality rates, adjusting for confounders (risk ratio [RR] = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.02, 1.03). This association followed a dose-response relationship and was stronger for mortality among those aged 15 to 34 years (RR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.06, 1.09).Conclusions. Within-county increases in jail incarceration rates are associated with increases in subsequent mortality rates after adjusting for important confounders.Public Health Implications. Our findings add to the growing body of empirical evidence of the harms of mass incarceration. The criminal justice reform and decarceration movements can use these findings as they develop strategies to end mass incarceration.