THE PRESENT, PAST AND FUTURE OF HUMAN-CAUSED EXTINCTIONS
THE PRESENT, PAST AND FUTURE OF HUMAN-CAUSED EXTINCTIONS
复制标题
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.1989.0100
复制
发表时间：
1989-11-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
DIAMOND, JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DIAMOND, JM
这篇论文重新评估了我们是否真的处于人类造成的大规模灭绝的开始。我考虑了人类引起的冲突的现在、过去和未来。就目前而言，根据《红色数据手册》对灭绝率的估计大大低估了真实的价值，因为这些书只评估那些引起特别注意和搜索的物种。特别是在没有常驻生物学家的热带地区，许多鲜为人知的物种在没有得到特别关注的情况下就灭绝了，还有一些甚至在被描述之前就消失了。需要一份已知安全物种的“绿色名单”，以补充已知灭绝物种的“红皮书”。至于过去，现在很清楚，人类首次到达任何以前没有人类居民的海洋岛屿，总是会导致岛屿生物群的大规模灭绝。众所周知的受害者包括新西兰的恐鸟，马达加斯加的巨型狐猴，以及夏威夷和其他热带太平洋岛屿上的数十种鸟类。在更新世晚期或全新世，大型哺乳动物在人类首次到达北美洲、南美洲和澳大利亚后的灭绝也可能是由人类造成的。因此，人类造成的大规模灭绝不是对未来的假设，而是一个已经进行了数千年的事件。至于未来，考虑到人类引起的灭绝的主要机制（过度狩猎，引入物种的影响，栖息地破坏和次生涟漪效应），灭绝的速度正在加快。基本原因是，现在的人类比以往任何时候都多，拥有更强大的破坏性技术，并侵蚀世界上物种最丰富的栖息地：大陆热带雨林。
This paper re-evaluates whether we are really at the start of a mass extinction caused by humans. I consider the present, past and future of human-caused extinctions. As regards the present, estimates of extinction rates based onRed Data Booksunderestimate real values by a large factor, because the books evaluate only those species that have attracted specific attention and searches. Especially in tropical areas with few resident biologists, many poorly known species go extinct without having been the object of specific attention, and others disappear even before being described. A ‘green list’ of species known to be secure is needed to complement ‘red books’ of species known to be extinct. As regards the past, it is now clear that the first arrival of humans at any oceanic island with no previous human inhabitants has always precipitated a mass extinction in the island biota. Well-known victims include New Zealand’s moas, Madagascar’s giant lemurs, and scores of bird species on Hawaii and other tropical Pacific islands. Late-Pleistocene or Holocene extinctions of large mammals after the first arrival of humans in North America, South America and Australia may also have been caused by humans. Hence human-caused mass extinction is not a hypothesis for the future but an event that has been underway for thousands of years. As regards the future, consideration of the main mechanisms of human-caused extinctions (overhunting, effects of introduced species, habitat destruction, and secondary ripple effects) indicates that the rate of extinction is accelerating. The basic reason is that there are now more humans than ever before, armed with more potent destructive technology, and encroaching on the world’s most species-rich habitats: the continental tropical rainforests.