The Growth Curve
The Growth Curve
复制标题
增长曲线
DOI：
10.1080/01621459.1927.10502970
复制
发表时间：
1927
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
G. R. Davies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. R. Davies
人们常常假设，如果有任何代表生物生长过程的统计标准，那就是在正常频率曲线的区域找到的。也就是说，增长的增量被假设为遵循由离散曲线表示的概率定律，因此增长本身被假设为遵循该曲线的积分，从其初始点开始，而不是像通常的表格中所示从中心开始。人们还假设，在一个动态的脉动中，或在一个殖民地成熟为一个国家的过程中，人口的增长遵循这种或某种类似的标准；珀尔教授关于人口所有权的著名著作在相当程度上证明了这一假设。本文的目的不是讨论这种标准作为预测未来增长或任何给定国家的人口饱和点的手段的有效性。假设增长指标的值表明可能的趋势，并暗示伴随着人口压力增加而发生的变化。将要提出的问题更确切地说是增长曲线的机制。至少有三种可用的方法可以用来拟合增长趋势。第一种是珀尔教授使用的，用最小二乘法拟合所谓的Logistic曲线，
It has often beeh assumed that if there is any statistical norm representing the course of biological growth, it is to be found in the area of the normal frequency curve. That is, the increments of growth are assumed to follow the law of chance as represented by the curve of dispersion, and the growth itself is therefore assumed to follow the integration of that curve, taken from its initial point rather than from the center as shown in the usual table. It has been assumed also that the growth of population during a dynamic pulsation, or during the maturing of a colony into a nation, follows this or some similar norm; and the well-known work of Professor Pearl on population--owth has given a considerable degree of justification to the assumption.It is not the purpose of this paper to discuss the validity of such a norm as a means of forecasting future growth or the saturation point of numbers in any given country. It is assumed that a growth norm has a value as indicating the probable trend, and as suggestive of the changes accompanying an increasing pressure of population. The question to be raised is rather the mechanics of the growth curve. There are at least three available methods of fitting a growth trend. The first, which has been used by Professor Pearl, fits by the method of least squares the so-called logistic curve,